Interpreting the Predictions of Prediction Markets

[1]  Steven Gjerstad Risk Aversion, Beliefs, and Prediction Market Equilibrium , 2004 .

[2]  J. Wolfers,et al.  Prediction Markets , 2003 .

[3]  Charles F. Manski,et al.  How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence , 2004 .

[4]  L. Brown,et al.  Racetrack betting and consensus of subjective probabilities , 2003 .

[5]  Andrew Leigh,et al.  What Do Financial Markets Think of War in Iraq? , 2003 .

[6]  Thomas A. Rietz,et al.  Accuracy and Forecast Standard Error of Prediction Markets , 2003 .

[7]  Thomas A. Rietz,et al.  Information Systems Frontiers 5:1, 79–93, 2003 C ○ 2003 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Manufactured in The Netherlands. Prediction Markets as Decision Support Systems , 2022 .

[8]  David Kjellberg Measuring Expectations , 1999, Identification Problems in the Social Sciences.

[9]  Jeff Dominitz,et al.  Perceptions of Economic Insecurity: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations , 1996 .

[10]  Michael D. Hurd,et al.  Evaluation of the Subjective Probabilities of Survival in the Health and Retirement Study , 1995 .

[11]  Robert Forsythe,et al.  Anatomy of an Experimental Political Stock Market , 1992 .

[12]  C. Manski The Use of Intentions Data to Predict Behavior: A Best-Case Analysis , 1990 .

[13]  Mukhtar M. Ali Probability and Utility Estimates for Racetrack Bettors , 1977, Journal of Political Economy.

[14]  Sanford J. Grossman ON THE EFFICIENCY OF COMPETITIVE STOCK MARKETS WHERE TRADES HAVE DIVERSE INFORMATION , 1976 .

[15]  L. J. Savage Elicitation of Personal Probabilities and Expectations , 1971 .

[16]  E. H. Shuford,et al.  Admissible probability measurement procedures , 1966, Psychometrika.

[17]  E. Eisenberg,et al.  CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITIES: THE PARI-MUTUEL METHOD, , 1959 .