How does economic risk aversion affect biodiversity?

Significant decline of biodiversity in farmlands has been reported for several decades. To limit the negative impact of agriculture, many agro-environmental schemes have been implemented, but their effectiveness remains controversial. In this context, the study of economic drivers is helpful to understand the role played by farming on biodiversity. The present paper analyzes the impact of risk aversion on farmland biodiversity. Here "risk aversion" means a cautious behavior of farmers facing uncertainty. We develop a bio-economic model that articulates bird community dynamics and representative farmers selecting land uses within an uncertain macro-economic context. It is specialized and calibrated at a regional scale for France through national databases. The influence of risk aversion is assessed on ecological, agricultural, and economic outputs through projections at the 2050 horizon. A high enough risk aversion appears sufficient to both manage economic risk and promote ecological performance. This occurs through a diversification mechanism on regional land uses. However, economic calibration leads to a weak risk-aversion parameter, which is consistent with the current decline of farmland birds. Spatial disparities however suggest that public incentives could be necessary to reinforce the diversification and bio-economic effectiveness.

[1]  F. Jiguet,et al.  Functional biotic homogenization of bird communities in disturbed landscapes , 2008 .

[2]  Lucas Reijnders,et al.  Sustainable Management of Natural Resources , 2004 .

[3]  Tom Gavin,et al.  Biodiversity in Agricultural Landscapes: Saving Natural Capital without Losing Interest , 2006, Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology.

[4]  Tomas Pärt,et al.  Linking agricultural policies to population trends of Swedish farmland birds in different agricultural regions , 2007 .

[5]  I. Seidl,et al.  Returns from Hay Cultivation in Fertilized Low Diversity and Non-Fertilized High Diversity Grassland , 2002 .

[6]  Robert A. Robinson,et al.  The importance of arable habitat for farmland birds in grassland landscapes , 2001 .

[7]  O. Mahul.  Optimal Insurance against Climatic Experience , 2001 .

[8]  A. Ives,et al.  Stability and variability in competitive communities. , 1999, Science.

[9]  M. Loreau,et al.  Biodiversity and ecosystem productivity in a fluctuating environment: the insurance hypothesis. , 1999, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[10]  F. Jiguet,et al.  Common birds facing global changes: what makes a species at risk? , 2004 .

[11]  Stefan Baumgärtner,et al.  Managing Increasing Environmental Risks Through Agro-Biodiversity and Agri-Environmental Policies , 2009 .

[12]  S. Gourguet,et al.  A bio-economic model for the ecosystem-based management of the coastal fishery in French Guiana , 2013, Environment and Development Economics.

[13]  Benjamin S. Rashford,et al.  Application of a Bioeconomic Production Model to Improve Wildlife Management , 2008 .

[14]  Frédéric Jiguet,et al.  Low‐intensity agriculture increases farmland bird abundances in France , 2010 .

[15]  E. Irwin,et al.  Theory, data, methods: developing spatially explicit economic models of land use change , 2001 .

[16]  Florence Jacquet,et al.  Joint production under uncertainty and multifunctionality of agriculture: policy considerations and applied analysis , 2005 .

[17]  Frédéric Jiguet,et al.  Method learning caused a first‐time observer effect in a newly started breeding bird survey , 2009 .

[18]  John R. Krebs,et al.  The second Silent Spring? , 1999, Nature.

[19]  Frank Wätzold,et al.  The importance of economic costs in the development of guidelines for spatial conservation management , 2001 .

[20]  J. Hausman,et al.  Contingent Valuation: Is Some Number Better than No Number? , 1994 .

[21]  Tiange Shi,et al.  Developing effective policies for the sustainable development of ecological agriculture in China: the case study of Jinshan County with a systems dynamics model ☆ , 2005 .

[22]  J. Hardaker.  Some Issues in Dealing with Risk in Agriculture , 2000 .

[23]  S. Polasky,et al.  Agricultural sustainability and intensive production practices , 2002, Nature.

[24]  F. Jiguet,et al.  Preventing biotic homogenization of farmland bird communities: The role of High Nature Value farmland , 2012 .

[25]  S. Butler,et al.  A cross‐taxonomic index for quantifying the health of farmland biodiversity , 2009 .

[26]  Matthieu Montalban,et al.  EU Competition policy revisited: Economic Doctrines within european political work , 2011 .

[27]  M. Altieri.  The ecological role of biodiversity in agroecosystems , 1999 .

[28]  V. Grimm,et al.  Differences and similarities between ecological and economic models for biodiversity conservation , 2007 .

[29]  M. Loreau,et al.  Species richness, temporal variability and resistance of biomass production in a Mediterranean grassland , 2005 .

[30]  A. Cropper.  Convention on Biological Diversity , 1993, Environmental Conservation.

[31]  I. Seidl,et al.  Expert Estimates about Effects of Biodiversity on Ecosystem Processes and Services , 1999 .

[32]  F. Jiguet,et al.  An Indicator of the Impact of Climatic Change on European Bird Populations , 2009, PloS one.

[33]  D. Doak,et al.  The Statistical Inevitability of Stability‐Diversity Relationships in Community Ecology , 1998, The American Naturalist.

[34]  F. Jiguet,et al.  Bio economic modeling for a sustainable management of biodiversity in agricultural lands , 2011 .

[35]  W. Rossing,et al.  Exploring multi-scale trade-offs between nature conservation, agricultural profits and landscape quality—A methodology to support discussions on land-use perspectives , 2007 .

[36]  Paul R. Ehrlich,et al.  Ecosystem consequences of bird declines , 2004, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[37]  Ralf Seppelt,et al.  Evaluating cost-effectiveness of conservation management actions in an agricultural landscape on a regional scale , 2007 .

[38]  R. Ambrose,et al.  Spatial patterns in recruitment and growth of the mussel Mytilus californianus (Conrad) in southern and northern California, USA, two regions with differing oceanographic conditions , 2009 .

[39]  Patrick Moyes,et al.  The Absence of Deprivation as a Measure of Social Well-Being. An Empirical Investigation , 2012 .

[40]  Jane Southworth.  Conserving Biodiversity in Agricultural Landscapes: Model-based Planning Tools , 2005, Landscape Ecology.

[41]  Non-parametric estimation of decision makers’ risk aversion , 2002 .

[42]  M. Thomas,et al.  Natural enemy diversity and pest control: patterns of pest emergence with agricultural intensification. , 2002 .

[43]  Patrick Moyes,et al.  Utilitarianism or welfarism: does it make a difference? , 2011, Social Choice and Welfare.

[44]  C. Perrings,et al.  Crop biodiversity, risk management and the implications of agricultural assistance , 2005 .

[45]  M. Gatto,et al.  Pricing Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services: The Never-Ending Story , 2000 .

[46]  W. Sutherland,et al.  Post‐war changes in arable farming and biodiversity in Great Britain , 2002 .

[47]  Andrew Balmford,et al.  Measuring the changing state of nature , 2003 .

[48]  S. Butler,et al.  Farmland Biodiversity and the Footprint of Agriculture , 2007, Science.

[49]  Luc Doyen,et al.  Sustainable Management of Natural Resources: Mathematical Models and Methods , 2008 .

[50]  T. Benton,et al.  Farmland biodiversity: is habitat heterogeneity the key? , 2003 .

[51]  P. Laiolo.  Spatial and Seasonal Patterns of Bird Communities in Italian Agroecosystems , 2005 .

[52]  Luc Doyen,et al.  Different policy scenarios to promote various targets of biodiversity , 2012 .

[53]  J. Olden.  Biotic homogenization: a new research agenda for conservation biogeography , 2006 .

[54]  Richard B. Bradbury,et al.  The role of agri-environment schemes and farm management practices in reversing the decline of farmland birds in England , 2004 .

[55]  F. Herzog,et al.  Mixed biodiversity benefits of agri-environment schemes in five European countries. , 2006, Ecology letters.

[56]  H.F.M. ten Berge,et al.  Farming options for The Netherlands explored by multi-objective modelling , 2000 .

[57]  S. Polasky,et al.  CONSERVING SPECIES IN A WORKING LANDSCAPE: LAND USE WITH BIOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC OBJECTIVES , 2005 .

[58]  Muriel Tichit,et al.  On the contribution of modelling to multifunctional agriculture: learning from comparisons. , 2009, Journal of environmental management.

[59]  E. Lichtenberg,et al.  Insurance, Moral Hazard, and Chemical Use in Agriculture , 1993 .

[60]  Ruud B.M. Huirne,et al.  Ecological-economic modelling to support multi-objective policy making: a farming systems approach implemented for Tuscany , 2004 .

[61]  R. Bunce,et al.  Changes in the abundance of farmland birds in relation to the timing of agricultural intensification in England and Wales , 2000 .

[62]  Paul F. Doherty,et al.  Balancing conservation and economic gain: a dynamic programming approach , 1999 .

[63]  J. A. Renkema,et al.  Location-Specific Modeling For Optimizing Wildlife Management On Crop Farms , 2004 .

[64]  C. Gollier.  The economics of risk and time , 2001 .

[65]  Stefan Baumgärtner,et al.  Natural Vs. Financial Insurance in the Management of Public-Good Ecosystems , 2007 .

[66]  J. Lockwood,et al.  Biotic homogenization: a few winners replacing many losers in the next mass extinction. , 1999, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[67]  Martin Drechsler,et al.  Ecological-economic modelling for the sustainable use and conservation of biodiversity , 2007 .

[68]  R. Beverton,et al.  On the dynamics of exploited fish populations , 1993, Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries.

[69]  Stefan Baumgärtner,et al.  Uncertainty and Sustainability in the Management of Rangelands , 2006 .

[70]  M. Smale,et al.  Farmer management of production risk on degraded lands: the role of wheat variety diversity in the Tigray region, Ethiopia , 2007 .

[71]  J. Alavalapati,et al.  Restoration of the longleaf pine ecosystem on private lands in the US South: an ecological economic analysis , 2002 .

[72]  Andrew R. Watkinson,et al.  Editors' Introduction: Birds and Agriculture , 2000 .

[73]  D. Noble,et al.  The state of play of farmland birds: population trends and conservation status of lowland farmland birds in the United Kingdom , 2004 .

[74]  Salvatore Di Falco,et al.  Crop genetic diversity, productivity and stability of agroecosystems : a theoretical and empirical investigation , 2003 .

[75]  Patrick Moyes,et al.  Ethically robust comparisons of bidimensional distributions with an ordinal attribute , 2012, J. Econ. Theory.

[76]  P. Donald,et al.  Further evidence of continent-wide impacts of agricultural intensification on European farmland birds, 1990–2000 , 2006 .

[77]  R. Green,et al.  Agricultural intensification and the collapse of Europe's farmland bird populations , 2001, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences.

[78]  Martin Drechsler,et al.  A model-based approach for designing cost-effective compensation payments for conservation of endangered species in real landscapes , 2007 .

[79]  F. Jiguet,et al.  Bird population trends are linearly affected by climate change along species thermal ranges , 2010, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.