Regional coseismic landslide hazard assessment without historical landslide inventories: A new approach

Currently, regional coseismic landslide hazard analyses require comprehensive historical landslide inventories as well as detailed geotechnical data. Consequently, such analyses have not been possible where these data are not available. A new approach is proposed herein to assess coseismic landslide hazard at regional scale for specific earthquake scenarios in areas without historical landslide inventories. The proposed model employs fuzzy logic and geographic information systems to establish relationships between causative factors and coseismic slope failures in regions with well-documented and substantially complete coseismic landslide inventories. These relationships are then utilized to estimate the relative probability of landslide occurrence in regions with neither historical landslide inventories nor detailed geotechnical data. Statistical analyses of inventories from the 1994 Northridge and 2008 Wenchuan earthquakes reveal that shaking intensity, topography, and distance from active faults and streams are the main controls on the spatial distribution of coseismic landslides. Average fuzzy memberships for each factor are developed and aggregated to model the relative coseismic landslide hazard for both earthquakes. The predictive capabilities of the models are assessed and show good-to-excellent model performance for both events. These memberships are then applied to the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, using only a digital elevation model, active fault map, and isoseismal data, replicating prediction of a future event in a region lacking historic inventories and/or geotechnical data. This similarly results in excellent model performance, demonstrating the model's predictive potential and confirming it can be meaningfully applied in regions where previous methods could not. For such regions, this method may enable a greater ability to analyze coseismic landslide hazard from specific earthquake scenarios, allowing for mitigation measures and emergency response plans to be better informed of earthquake-related hazards.

[1]  Janusz Wasowski,et al.  Time probabilistic evaluation of seismically induced landslide hazard in Irpinia (Southern Italy) , 2004 .

[2]  Shui-Beih Yu,et al.  Velocity field of GPS stations in the Taiwan area , 1997 .

[3]  Comprehensive Areal Model of Earthquake-Induced Landslides: Technical Specification and User Guide , 2007 .

[4]  Hiroshi P. Sato,et al.  Landslide inventories: The essential part of seismic landslide hazard analyses , 2011 .

[5]  Giovanni B. Crosta,et al.  Techniques for evaluating the performance of landslide susceptibility models , 2010 .

[6]  Ezio Faccioli,et al.  Initiation of earthquake-induced slope failure: influence of topographical and other site specific amplification effects , 2003 .

[7]  T. Ross.  Fuzzy Logic with Engineering Applications , 1994 .

[8]  K. Hudnut,et al.  Co-seismic ruptures of the 12 May 2008, Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, Sichuan: East–west crustal shortening on oblique, parallel thrusts along the eastern edge of Tibet , 2009 .

[9]  Scott B. Miles,et al.  Toward a comprehensive areal model of earthquake-induced landslides. , 2009 .

[10]  Janusz Wasowski,et al.  An Approach to Time-Probabilistic Evaluation of Seismically Induced Landslide Hazard , 2003 .

[11]  M. Terlien,et al.  Prediction of the occurrence of slope instability phenomenal through GIS-based hazard zonation , 1997 .

[12]  Isik Yilmaz,et al.  Landslide susceptibility mapping using frequency ratio, logistic regression, artificial neural networks and their comparison: A case study from Kat landslides (Tokat - Turkey) , 2009, Comput. Geosci..

[13]  D. K. Keefer,et al.  Toward the next generation of research on earthquake-induced landslides: Current issues and future challenges , 2011 .

[14]  N. Hovius,et al.  Topographic site effects and the location of earthquake induced landslides , 2008 .

[15]  Robert LIN,et al.  NOTE ON FUZZY SETS , 2014 .

[16]  Qiuming Gong,et al.  Spatial distribution of landslides triggered by the 2008 Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, China , 2011 .

[17]  Huabin Wang,et al.  Preliminary investigation of some large landslides triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, Sichuan Province, China , 2009 .

[18]  Qiang Xu,et al.  Transient water and sediment storage of the decaying landslide dams induced by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, China , 2012 .

[19]  K. Kellogg.  Tectonic controls on a large landslide complex: Williams Fork Mountains near Dillon, Colorado , 2001 .

[20]  Chjeng-Lun Shieh,et al.  Impact of Chi-Chi earthquake on the occurrence of landslides and debris flows: example from the Chenyulan River watershed, Nantou, Taiwan , 2004 .

[21]  L. Warr,et al.  Clay mineral transformations and weakening mechanisms along the Alpine Fault, New Zealand , 2001, Geological Society, London, Special Publications.

[22]  Lucile M. Jones,et al.  The 1994 Northridge earthquake sequence in California: Seismological and tectonic aspects , 1995 .

[23]  Anil K. Chopra,et al.  Earthquake Stress Analysis in Earth Dams , 1966 .

[24]  E. Harp,et al.  Landslides triggered by the earthquake , 1990 .

[25]  Xiaoqing Chen,et al.  The 12 May Wenchuan earthquake-induced landslide lakes: distribution and preliminary risk evaluation , 2009 .

[26]  D. Keefer.  Landslides caused by earthquakes , 1984 .

[27]  Gokhan Saygili,et al.  Empirical Predictive Models for Earthquake-Induced Sliding Displacements of Slopes , 2008 .

[28]  B. Khazai,et al.  Evaluation of factors controlling earthquake-induced landslides caused by Chi-Chi earthquake and comparison with the Northridge and Loma Prieta events , 2004 .

[29]  M. Anderson,et al.  Landslide Hazard and Risk: Glade/Landslide , 2005 .

[30]  Yann Klinger,et al.  Coseismic reverse- and oblique-slip surface faulting generated by the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake, China , 2009 .

[31]  N. Newmark.  Effects of Earthquakes on Dams and Embankments , 1965 .

[32]  R. Jibson,et al.  A seismic landslide susceptibility rating of geologic units based on analysis of characteristics of landslides triggered by the 17 January, 1994 Northridge, California earthquake , 2000 .

[33]  M. Arora,et al.  GIS-based Landslide Hazard Zonation in the Bhagirathi (Ganga) Valley, Himalayas , 2002 .

[34]  D. Komatitsch,et al.  Effects of Realistic Surface Topography on Seismic Ground Motion in the Yangminshan Region of Taiwan Based Upon the Spectral-Element Method and LiDAR DTM , 2009 .

[35]  J. Milliman,et al.  Earthquake-triggered increase in sediment delivery from an active mountain belt , 2004 .

[36]  Andrew D. Weiss.  Topographic position and landforms analysis , 2001 .

[37]  R. Soeters,et al.  Landslide hazard and risk zonation—why is it still so difficult? , 2006 .

[38]  Ming-Lang Lin,et al.  Statistical approach to earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility , 2008 .

[39]  Chong Xu,et al.  Preparation of earthquake-triggered landslide inventory maps using remote sensing and GIS technologies: Principles and case studies , 2015 .

[40]  P. C. Pelekis,et al.  Effects of surface topography on seismic ground response in the Egion (Greece) 15 June 1995 earthquake , 1999 .

[41]  Q. Cheng,et al.  Conditional Independence Test for Weights-of-Evidence Modeling , 2002 .

[42]  K. Whipple.  BEDROCK RIVERS AND THE GEOMORPHOLOGY OF ACTIVE OROGENS , 2004 .

[43]  Thomas Glade,et al.  The Nature of Landslide Hazard Impact , 2012 .

[44]  Scott B. Miles,et al.  Evaluation of seismic slope-performance models using a regional case study , 2000 .

[45]  C. Lee.  Statistical seismic landslide hazard analysis: An example from Taiwan , 2014 .

[46]  Tzay-Chyn Shin,et al.  An Overview of the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, Earthquake , 2004 .

[47]  Didier Dubois,et al.  A review of fuzzy set aggregation connectives , 1985, Inf. Sci..

[48]  Oliver Korup,et al.  Geomorphic implications of fault zone weakening: Slope instability along the Alpine Fault, South Westland to Fiordland , 2004 .

[49]  M. Turrini,et al.  An objective method to rank the importance of the factors predisposing to landslides with the GIS methodology: application to an area of the Apennines (Valnerina; Perugia, Italy) , 2002 .

[50]  Jeroen Tromp,et al.  Effects of Topography on Seismic-Wave Propagation: An Example from Northern Taiwan , 2009 .

[51]  Margaret Hellweg,et al.  Directional topographic site response at Tarzana observed in aftershocks of the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake: Implications for mainshock motions , 1996, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.

[52]  Ellen M. Rathje,et al.  A unified model for predicting earthquake-induced sliding displacements of rigid and flexible slopes , 2011 .

[53]  C. Westen,et al.  Evaluating the use of training areas in bivariate statistical landslide hazard analysis : a case study in Colombia , 1994 .

[54]  T. Davies,et al.  Assessment of rainfall-generated shallow landslide/debris-flow susceptibility and runout using a GIS-based approach: application to western Southern Alps of New Zealand , 2015, Landslides.

[55]  B. Pradhan,et al.  Landslide hazard mapping at Selangor, Malaysia using frequency ratio and logistic regression models , 2007 .

[56]  J. Bray,et al.  Pseudostatic Coefficient for Use in Simplified Seismic Slope Stability Evaluation , 2009 .

[57]  P. Aleotti,et al.  Landslide hazard assessment: summary review and new perspectives , 1999 .

[58]  C. Westen,et al.  Distribution pattern of earthquake-induced landslides triggered by the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake , 2010 .

[59]  Masahiro Chigira,et al.  Geological causes and geomorphological precursors of the Tsaoling landslide triggered by the 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake, Taiwan , 2003 .

[60]  R. Jibson.  Regression models for estimating coseismic landslide displacement , 2007 .

[61]  C. F. Lee,et al.  Landslide characteristics and, slope instability modeling using GIS, Lantau Island, Hong Kong , 2002 .

[62]  Alberto González,et al.  Validation of Landslide Susceptibility Maps; Examples and Applications from a Case Study in Northern Spain , 2003 .

[63]  T. Davies,et al.  The Little Red Hill Seismic Experimental Study: Topographic Effects on Ground Motion at a Bedrock-Dominated Mountain Edifice , 2010 .

[64]  Lotfi A. Zadeh,et al.  Fuzzy Sets , 1996, Inf. Control..

[65]  P. Reichenbach,et al.  GIS techniques and statistical models in evaluating landslide hazard , 1991 .

[66]  N. Hovius,et al.  Regional patterns of earthquake‐triggered landslides and their relation to ground motion , 2007 .

[67]  L. R. West,et al.  Observed effects of topography on ground motion , 1973, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.

[68]  D. Petley.  Global patterns of loss of life from landslides , 2012 .

[69]  Distributions of landslides triggered by the Chi-chi Earthquake in Central Taiwan on September 21, 1999 [E] : Mountains and slopes(GEOMORPHOLOGICAL ABSTRACTS (2001)From scientific papers published in Japan) , 2002 .

[70]  Experimental study of the ground motion on a large scale topographic hill at Kitherion (Greece) , 1999 .

[71]  David R. Montgomery,et al.  Landslide erosion coupled to tectonics and river incision , 2012 .

[72]  P. Reichenbach,et al.  Landslide hazard evaluation: a review of current techniques and their application in a multi-scale study, Central Italy , 1999 .

[73]  Douglas S. Dreger,et al.  Finite-Source Modeling of the 1999 Taiwan (Chi-Chi) Earthquake Derived from a Dense Strong-Motion Network , 2004 .

[74]  T. Robinson,et al.  Review Article: Potential geomorphic consequences of a future great ( M w = 8.0+) Alpine Fault earthquake, South Island, New Zealand , 2013 .

[75]  Robert G. Hilton,et al.  Seismic mountain building: Landslides associated with the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in the context of a generalized model for earthquake volume balance , 2014 .

[76]  James N. Brune,et al.  Shattered Rock and Precarious Rock Evidence for Strong Asymmetry in Ground Motions during Thrust Faulting , 2001 .

[77]  R. Beighley,et al.  GIS‐based regional landslide susceptibility mapping: a case study in southern California , 2008 .

[78]  Juan Remondo,et al.  Landslide Susceptibility Models Utilising Spatial Data Analysis Techniques. A Case Study from the Lower Deba Valley, Guipuzcoa (Spain) , 2003 .

[79]  John J. Clague,et al.  Legacies of catastrophic rock slope failures in mountain landscapes , 2008 .

[80]  M. Sorriso-Valvo,et al.  Deep-seated gravitational slope deformations, related landslides and tectonics , 1994 .

[81]  P. Reichenbach,et al.  Gis Technology in Mapping Landslide Hazard , 1995 .

[82]  Jonathan P. Stewart,et al.  A Screen Analysis Procedure for Seismic Slope Stability , 2003 .

[83]  M. McSaveney,et al.  The effect of glaciation on the intensity of seismic ground motion , 2012 .

[84]  J. Gerring.  A case study , 2011, Technology and Society.

[85]  E. Rathje,et al.  The influence of different simplified sliding-block models and input parameters on regional predictions of seismic landslides triggered by the Northridge earthquake , 2013 .

[86]  D. Wald,et al.  Review Article Topographic Slope as a Proxy for Seismic Site Conditions and Amplification , 2007 .

[87]  Michael A. Ellis,et al.  Active tectonics of the Beichuan and Pengguan faults at the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau , 2007 .

[88]  D. Keefer,et al.  Evaluation of CAMEL — comprehensive areal model of earthquake-induced landslides , 2009 .

[89]  Saro Lee,et al.  Landslide susceptibility mapping in the Damrei Romel area, Cambodia using frequency ratio and logistic regression models , 2006 .

[90]  C. F. Lee,et al.  Assessment of landslide susceptibility on the natural terrain of Lantau Island, Hong Kong , 2001 .

[91]  Chong Xu,et al.  Why so few? Landslides triggered by the 2002 Denali earthquake, Alaska , 2014 .

[92]  C. Lee.  Re-Evaluation of Factors Controlling Landslides Triggered by the 1999 Chi–Chi Earthquake , 2013 .

[93]  Li Yong,et al.  GEOLOGICAL BACKGROUND OF LONGMEN SHAN SEISMIC BELT AND SURFACE RUPTURES IN WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE , 2009 .

[94]  E. Harp,et al.  A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps , 2000 .

[95]  G. Tucker,et al.  Landscape response to tectonic forcing: Digital elevation model analysis of stream profiles in the Mendocino triple junction region, northern California , 2000 .

[96]  R. Soeters,et al.  Use of Geomorphological Information in Indirect Landslide Susceptibility Assessment , 2003 .

[97]  Thomas H. Heaton,et al.  A dislocation model of the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake determined from strong ground motions , 1994 .

[98]  Xu Weiya,et al.  GIS-based landslide hazard assessment: an overview , 2005 .

[99]  Gokhan Saygili,et al.  Probabilistic assessment of earthquake-induced sliding displacements of natural slopes , 2009 .

[100]  Yong Li,et al.  Mass wasting triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake is greater than orogenic growth , 2011 .

[101]  C. Chung,et al.  Probabilistic prediction models for landslide hazard mapping , 1999 .