International Space Station Collision Probability
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This paper covers the collision probability of the International Space Station (ISS) with orbiting space debris. NASA presently bases its analysis on the ISS modeled as a sphere. In contrast, the analysis here uses a detailed model very close to the actual shape of the ISS. Sample results indicate that the collision probability is one or two orders of magnitude smaller. An important feature of this analysis is that the complicated computations are reduced by the use of the Method of Equivalent Cross Section Area (MECSA) applied to each component of the ISS. The results obtained are within 0.1% relative error of those obtained by time-consuming area computations.
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