A LANCHESTER-TYPE MODEL FOR COMBAT BETWEEN SUBMARINES, CARRIER TASK GROUPS, AND HUNTER-KILLER GROUPS

Abstract : The use of a Lanchester combat mathematical model of a case in which two naval forces are engaging in a large ocean arena is explored. Specifically, carriers protected by ASW screens are in the area attempting to accomplish a mission. They are opposed by submarines which must seek and attack the carriers, and they are supported by huk groups which roam the area hunting submarines. First to be discussed is a digital computer approach for calculating the survival probabilities of the various combinations of carriers and submarines, as functions of time. Then an approximate analytic expression is derived for the expected fraction of the carrier force remaining afloat as a function of time. Th s approximation, and another previously derived from 'expected value' analysis of this problem are compared to the machine generated values. The approximation is substantially better than earlier efforts, especially in certain critical cases. (Author)