Imitation Processes and Lone Wolf Terrorism: Who Will the Copycat Copy?

Copycat acts of violence involve an offender imitating the violent actions of a predecessor and, possibly, attempting to surpass the outcomes of those actions. This paper investigates the copycat’s choice of predecessor. This is accomplished by using both expected utility theory and prospect theory to construct a preference ordering across predecessors. The analysis is applied to the set of lone wolf terrorists who have engaged in shooting sprees in the United States. The objective is to identify who from among the list of lone wolf terrorist spree shooters the copycat is most likely to choose and the factors that may shape that choice. The paper aims to highlight another way in which orthodox and behavioural economic analysis may be applied in investigative and law enforcement contexts. The application can apply analogously across all categories of violence where copycat behaviour may be observed.