Timing Technological Transitions

Technological discontinuities are among the most disruptive challenges facing corporations, and they are on the increase. Empirically, it appears that few corporations are able to survive discontinuities. They either lose market share, money or their independence. Despite the importance of the discontinuity problem for top management, few have done much to better anticipate and deal with these increasingly frequent events. They act as if they assume that there is nothing that can be done. The problem appears to be one of misplaced faith in some conventional assumptions about what it takes to succeed. The author examines these assumptions, particularly those dealing with the supposed advantages of defenders, and pinpoints their errors. This knowledge then leads to positive solutions that hopefully, in turn, will lead to increased success for some of our most important companies.