Towards below replacement fertility in Southern Africa

The aims were to analyse trends in fertility rates and net reproduction rates in Agincourt a rural area of South Africa located in the former homeland of Gazankulu near the Mozambican border. Trends are analysed in the context of widely available modern contraceptive methods and of increasing HIV/AIDS. A health and demographic surveillance system is in place since 1992 in Agincourt on a population of approximately 70 000 persons with annual census and comprehensive recording of births and deaths. It was complemented with a retrospective study of fertility at baseline. Retrospective and prospective data were used to calculate trends in fertility survival and net reproduction. When possible they were compared with data from other censuses and surveys in the same ethnic group. The fertility transition has almost ended over a period of 25 years in Agincourt. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) averaged 6.0 in 1979 and 2.3 in 2004. Fertility declined in a proportionate fashion in all age groups including adolescents in the recent period. The Net Reproduction Rate (NRR) declined from 1.8 to 1.0 during the prospective period (1992-2004). At the current rates of changes in fertility and mortality the NRR could be expected to reach 0.63 by year 2010. The situation of a below replacement fertility level is new for rural Africa and is likely to have many demographic economic and social implications in the future. The population might even decline for the country as a whole and is already stagnating in Agincourt because of negative migration flows balancing the small excess of natural increase. (authors)