Using GIS to Predict Fire Behavior

ues, ecosystem managers can use GIS to narrow options to a sparially feasible set, More importantly, sensitivity analysis can be performed on critical assumptions, allowing managers tofocus on pivotal areas of uncertainty. Fire is both part and partner in ecosystem management. Fire plays a significant role in the dynamics of forest ecosystems throughout the world; both wildfires and prescribed burning affect ecosystem relationships and management activities. In 1994, wildfires burned several million acres of forestland throughout the United States, and 14 fire fighters were killed in a wildfire in Colorado. Conversely, fire exdusion has dramatically altered the ecosystems of the West, changing species composition and increasing tree density (Moore 1994). Resource managers must consider fire at landscape l vels where GIS becomes an important management tool. This paper explores the use of GIS to spatially represent fire behavior under varying assumptions of fuel type, weather condition, and topography. Simulating fire behavior and effects across landscapes facilitates the prediction of future vegetation and habitat conditions. Landscape conditions that result from different man-