Roles and prospect of nuclear power in China's energy supply strategy

Abstract China's annual energy demand is expected to amount to 3360 million tons of oil equivalent (toe) in 2050, the target year for the nation's economic development to reach the level of medium-developed countries in the middle of this century. The future energy supply, doubtless to go through a substantial increase and necessary mix shift with potential significant environmental impacts, will continue to rely on the domestic sources with coal-dominance but diversified mixes, in which nuclear power makes up a reasonable share. The large-scale development of nuclear energy is essential and promising, with the total installed capacity expectedly over 200–300 GW around 2050, and will be an effective response measure to mitigate the energy-derived environmental pollution and guarantee the national energy security. China is a developing country with the largest population in the world. The energy production had achieved remarkable progress over the last half century, particularly since the initiatives of reform and opening to the outside world in the late 1970s, and energy demand to fuel the continued socio-economic growth has been largely met. The current energy consumption of China is 896 Mtoe (China Stat. Abs. (2001) 130), accounting for about 11% of the world's total, the second largest energy consumer in the globe. However, the energy supply will face even tougher challenges in terms of demand increase, mix shift and potential environmental impacts to be posed by a sustained fast-growing economy in light of China's blueprint for future development. With the switch-over from the centrally planned economy to the socialist market economy and the gradual integration of China's energy trade into the international markets, the imported crude oil in 2000 amounted to 70.265 Mt (Int. Petrol. Econ. 9 (2000) 5), about 3.5% of the global petroleum trade, the long-term energy security for China would have great regional and global implications. It is, therefore, of great significance to make a deep study of the role and prospect of nuclear power as an essential component of China's future energy mix, so as to develop a sound and sustainable energy security strategy.