Bifurcation analysis of geophysical time series

We propose a general synthetic framework, combining analytical and experimental techniques, for studying climatic bifurcations and transitions by means of the time series analysis. The method employs three major techniques: (i) derivation of potential from time series using unscented Kalman Filter (UKF); (ii) studying possible bifurcations and transitions of the obtained potential; (iii) projection of the time series according to the estimated perturbation. The method is tested on artificial data and then applied to observed records, in particular, a Greenland temperature proxy.