Decision Modeling for Socio-Cultural Data

Abstract : In this paper, we present initial findings from a research effort to build a business intelligence platform that incorporates data-driven models, such as Bayesian belief networks, and goal-driven models, including multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), into a geospatial environment to support decision making for campaign management. Our development approach supports tactical level commanders at the brigade, battalion, and company level, providing operationally relevant information on the relationships between factors driving the insurgency and leverage points for planning and executing more effective operations. The Decision Modeler tool will be used to support counterinsurgency and stability operations by allowing users to interactively construct MCDA models to evaluate and compare alternative outcomes for specific lines of effort. MCDA is a discipline that supports decision making in the presence of several conflicting or uncertain factors, while assisting the decision maker identify the objectives, factors and metrics to support the decision goals. This process is designed to support the analyst from early planning of an operation, through the selection of evaluation criteria, automated population of relevant socio-cultural data, to the generation and calculation of alternative ranking scores.