The Value of a Space Precursor Analysis Program: A Saturn Example

There is general agreement that “near miss” or “close call” data is valuable to the space program and whenever NASA becomes convinced that such events have occurred they have acted responsibly and quickly to address them. The problem lies in defining what constitutes a near miss in a system that is inherently very complex, such that ‘abnormalities’ are actually normal occurrences, and yet one that is relatively reliable because of the inherent strengths incorporated into the design, such as robustness, redundancy, and functional diversity. The question becomes: what would the consideration of failure precursors add to the insights to be drawn from history as it relates to forecasting future performance? This paper will use the example of the Saturn program to address the problems involved in forecasting the risk in complex, yet reasonably reliable programs and to indicate preliminary approaches for use in establishing a space industry precursor program.© 2003 ASME