Determinant Factors of Long-Term Performance Development in Young Swimmers.

PURPOSE To develop a performance predictor model based on swimmers' biomechanical profile, relate the partial contribution of the main predictors with the training program, and analyze the time effect, sex effect, and time × sex interaction. METHODS 91 swimmers (44 boys, 12.04 ± 0.81 y; 47 girls, 11.22 ± 0.98 y) evaluated during a 3-y period. The decimal age and anthropometric, kinematic, and efficiency features were collected 10 different times over 3 seasons (ie, longitudinal research). Hierarchical linear modeling was the procedure used to estimate the performance predictors. RESULTS Performance improved between season 1 early and season 3 late for both sexes (boys 26.9% [20.88;32.96], girls 16.1% [10.34;22.54]). Decimal age (estimate [EST] -2.05, P < .001), arm span (EST -0.59, P < .001), stroke length (EST 3.82; P = .002), and propelling efficiency (EST -0.17, P = .001) were entered in the final model. CONCLUSION Over 3 consecutive seasons young swimmers' performance improved. Performance is a multifactorial phenomenon where anthropometrics, kinematics, and efficiency were the main determinants. The change of these factors over time was coupled with the training plans of this talent identification and development program.