Explaining voter turnout: A meta-analysis of national and subnational elections

Research about voter turnout has expanded rapidly in recent years. This article takes stock of this development by extending the meta-analysis of Geys (2006) in two main ways. First, we add 102 studies published between 2002 and 2015 to the initial sample of 83 studies. Overall, we document only minor changes to the original inferences. Second, since different processes might conceivably play at different levels of government, we exploit the larger sample to separately analyse the determinants of voter turnout in national versus subnational elections. We find that campaign expenditures, election closeness and registration requirements have more explanatory power in national elections, whereas population size and composition, concurrent elections, and the electoral system play a more important role for explaining turnout in subnational elections.

[1]  A. Barwig How electoral rules matter: voter turnout in Morocco's 2007 parliamentary elections , 2009 .

[2]  Daniel Stockemer,et al.  Corruption and turnout in Portugal—a municipal level study , 2013 .

[3]  H. Schmitt,et al.  NINE SECOND‐ORDER NATIONAL ELECTIONS – A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR THE ANALYSIS OF EUROPEAN ELECTION RESULTS , 1980 .

[4]  Anthony Fowler,et al.  Electoral and Policy Consequences of Voter Turnout: Evidence from Compulsory Voting in Australia , 2013 .

[5]  James W. Endersby,et al.  Turnout around the globe: The influence of electoral institutions on national voter participation, 1972–2000 , 2008 .

[6]  W. Shughart,et al.  Corruption and Voter Participation : Evidence from the U . S . States , 2008 .

[7]  M. Barreto İSí Se Puede! Latino Candidates and the Mobilization of Latino Voters , 2007, American Political Science Review.

[8]  Christine Fauvelle-Aymar Electoral turnout in Johannesburg: socio-economic and political determinants , 2008 .

[9]  D. Green,et al.  Voting May Be Habit-Forming: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment , 2003 .

[10]  David S. Brown,et al.  Do political parties matter for turnout? Number of parties, electoral rules and local elections in Brazil and Bolivia , 2015 .

[11]  Christian W. Martin,et al.  Economic Integration, Party Polarisation and Electoral Turnout , 2012 .

[12]  V. A. Mahler,et al.  Exploring the Subnational Dimension of Income Inequality: An Analysis of the Relationship Between Inequality and Electoral Turnout in the Developed Countries , 2002 .

[13]  D. Mueller Public Choice III: What have we learned? , 1979 .

[14]  A. Blais,et al.  Electoral Systems and Turnout , 2006 .

[15]  Nils D. Steiner Economic globalization and voter turnout in established democracies , 2010 .

[16]  J. Lefevere,et al.  First-order, second-order or third-rate?: A comparison of turnout in European, local and national elections in the Netherlands , 2014 .

[17]  E. Sharp Local Elections and the Politics of Small-Scale Democracy. By J. Eric Oliver with Shang E. Ha and Zachary Callen. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2012. 234p. $75.00 cloth, $29.95 paper. , 2013, Perspectives on Politics.

[18]  W. Caan,et al.  The Spirit Level. Why Equality is Better for Everyone , 2011 .

[19]  Daniel Stockemer,et al.  Presidentialism and Voter Turnout in Legislative Elections , 2014 .

[20]  Christina Gathmann,et al.  HOW DO ELECTORAL SYSTEMS AFFECT FISCAL POLICY? EVIDENCE FROM CANTONAL PARLIAMENTS, 1890–2000 , 2013 .

[21]  Aaron C. Weinschenk,et al.  Campaigns, Mobilization, and Turnout in Mayoral Elections , 2014 .

[22]  William G. Bowen,et al.  Registration and Voting: Putting First Things First , 1967, American Political Science Review.

[23]  C. Ham,et al.  The embarrassment of riches?: A meta-analysis of individual-level research on voter turnout , 2013 .

[24]  R. Jackman Political Institutions and Voter Turnout in the Industrial Democracies , 1987, American Political Science Review.

[25]  M. Gallagher Proportionality, disproportionality and electoral systems , 1991 .

[26]  Peter Selb A Deeper Look at the Proportionality—Turnout Nexus , 2009 .

[27]  Barry C. Burden,et al.  The Impact of Election Day Registration on Voter Turnout and Election Outcomes , 2012 .

[28]  R. Sørensen The Impact of State Television on Voter Turnout , 2016, British Journal of Political Science.

[29]  Sungho Yun,et al.  Expressiveness and Voting Decision: New Evidence from the Korean Parliamentary Election* , 2014, Japanese Journal of Political Science.

[30]  Timothy J. Power,et al.  Compulsory for Whom? Mandatory Voting and Electoral Participation in Brazil, 1986-2006 , 2009 .

[31]  Pedro C. Magalhães,et al.  Referendum design, quorum rules and turnout , 2010 .

[32]  N. Potrafke,et al.  Opening hours of polling stations and voter turnout: Evidence from a natural experiment , 2016, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[33]  Does Measurement Matter? The Case of VAP and VEP in Models of Voter Turnout in the United States , 2010, State Politics & Policy Quarterly.

[34]  Lance Y. Hunter,et al.  Voters versus terrorists: Analyzing the effect of terrorist events on voter turnout , 2013 .

[35]  David S. Brown,et al.  Political Competition and Local Social Spending: Evidence from Brazil , 2014 .

[36]  Sandra Breux,et al.  Analyse écologique des déterminants de la participation électorale municipale au Québec , 2014, Canadian Journal of Political Science.

[37]  Scott L. Althaus,et al.  The Impact of Television Market Size on Voter Turnout in American Elections , 2008 .

[38]  N. Potrafke,et al.  Democracy with Group Identity , 2015, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[39]  Margit Tavits Direct Presidential Elections and Turnout in Parliamentary Contests , 2009 .

[40]  Jered B. Carr,et al.  So Close, Yet so Far Away? the Effects of City Size, Density and Growth on Local Civic Participation , 2013 .

[41]  F. Veiga,et al.  Economic performance and turnout at national and local elections , 2013 .

[42]  C. Anderson,et al.  Left Parties, Poor Voters, and Electoral Participation in Advanced Industrial Societies , 2012 .

[43]  Peter Miller,et al.  Early Voting and Turnout , 2007, PS: Political Science & Politics.

[44]  L. Scruggs,et al.  Income inequality, development and electoral turnout – New evidence on a burgeoning debate , 2012 .

[45]  J. Hiskey,et al.  The Participation Paradox of Indigenous Autonomy in Mexico , 2011, Latin American Politics and Society.

[46]  R. Elgie,et al.  Turnout Under Semipresidentialism , 2012 .

[47]  D. Mueller,et al.  Community size, heterogeneity and voter turnouts , 2005 .

[48]  M. Streb,et al.  When Money Cannot Encourage Participation: Campaign Spending and Rolloff in Low Visibility Judicial Elections , 2011 .

[49]  M. Freitag Structure versus Culture: A Comparative Study of the Influence of Political Institutions and Cultural Modernization Factors on Voter Turnout in Swiss Sub-national Parliamentary Elections , 2010 .

[50]  T. Piketty Capital in the twenty-first century: a multidimensional approach to the history of capital and social classes. , 2013, The British journal of sociology.

[51]  Clayton Clouse Changes in Congressional Turnout, 1972–2006 , 2011 .

[52]  B. Geys Political Dynasties, Electoral Institutions and Politicians’ Human Capital , 2017 .

[53]  Nicola McEwen,et al.  A Comparative Analysis of Voter Turnout in Regional Elections , 2010 .

[54]  Michelle Kuenzi,et al.  Voter Turnout in Africa's Multiparty Regimes , 2007 .

[55]  Meta-analysis: an overview. , 1990, Nutrition.

[56]  V. Scoppa,et al.  The impact of gender quotas on electoral participation: Evidence from Italian municipalities , 2014 .

[57]  L. Scruggs,et al.  Bribes and ballots: The impact of corruption on voter turnout in democracies , 2013 .

[58]  Joseph W. Robbins The personal vote and voter turnout , 2010 .

[59]  R. Morlan,et al.  Municipal vs. National Election Voter Turnout: Europe and the United States , 1984 .

[60]  P. Norris,et al.  Elections and voting in global perspective , 1996 .

[61]  Peter T. Calcagno,et al.  An institutional analysis of voter turnout: the role of primary type and the expressive and instrumental voting hypotheses , 2008 .

[62]  A. Blais,et al.  Does proportional representation foster voter turnout , 1990 .

[63]  Tommaso Nannicini,et al.  Moderating Political Extremism: Single Round vs Runoff Elections Under Plurality Rule , 2009, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[64]  B. Geys,et al.  Strategic Housing Policy, Migration and Sorting Around Population Thresholds , 2015, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[65]  A. Blais WHAT AFFECTS VOTER TURNOUT , 2006 .

[66]  A. Blais,et al.  Decentralization and Voter Turnout , 2011 .

[67]  Erik R. Tillman Pre-electoral coalitions and voter turnout , 2015 .

[68]  James C. Garand,et al.  Explaining Voter Turnout in Latin America, 1980 to 2000 , 2004 .

[69]  Gábor Simonovits Competition and turnout revisited: The importance of measuring expected closeness accurately , 2012 .

[70]  James W. Endersby,et al.  Making wasted votes count: Turnout, transfers, and preferential voting in practice , 2014 .

[71]  R. Diwakar Voter Turnout in the Indian States: An Empirical Analysis , 2008 .

[72]  M. Poitras,et al.  Voter turnout in US presidential elections: does Carville’s law explain the time series? , 2014 .

[73]  K. Nalder The Effect of State Legislative Term Limits on Voter Turnout , 2007, State Politics & Policy Quarterly.

[74]  A. Ladner,et al.  Do voters turn out more under proportional than majoritarian systems? The evidence from Swiss communal elections , 1999 .

[75]  David M. Konisky,et al.  The Introduction of Voter Registration and Its Effect on Turnout , 2005, Political Analysis.

[76]  Régis Dandoy,et al.  Electoral Cycles and Turnout in Multilevel Electoral Systems , 2014 .

[77]  Shelley Boulianne Does Internet Use Affect Engagement? A Meta-Analysis of Research , 2009 .

[78]  P. Southwell Analysis of the turnout effects of vote by mail elections, 1980–2007 , 2009 .

[79]  Neal Caren Big City, Big Turnout? Electoral Participation in American Cities , 2007 .

[80]  A. Ladner,et al.  Can PR Voting Serve as a Shelter Against Declining Turnout? Evidence from Swiss Municipal Elections , 2006 .

[81]  R. Johnston,et al.  CHANGE THE SEATS, CHANGE THE PARTICIPATION? PARLIAMENTARY REDISTRICTING AND CONSTITUENCY TURNOUT , 2012 .

[82]  Jørgen Juel Andersen,et al.  Voting When the Stakes are High , 2010, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[83]  B. Grofman,et al.  Turnout and the (effective) number of parties at the national and district levels: A puzzle-solving approach , 2011 .

[84]  N. Potrafke,et al.  Just Hire Your Spouse! Evidence from a Political Scandal in Bavaria , 2014, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[85]  Donald P. Haider‐Markel The Oxford handbook of state and local government , 2014 .

[86]  Joshua A. Tucker,et al.  Disenchanted or Discerning: Voter Turnout in Post-Communist Countries , 2009, The Journal of Politics.

[87]  E. Anduiza,et al.  Disproportionality and voter turnout in new and old democracies , 2012 .

[88]  Csaba Nikolenyi,et al.  Concurrent Elections and Voter Turnout: The Effect of the De-Linking of State Elections on Electoral Participation in India's Parliamentary Polls, 1971-2004 , 2010 .

[89]  Ronny Freier,et al.  Regression Discontinuity Designs Based on Population Thresholds: Pitfalls and Solutions , 2018 .

[90]  Patricia Funk Social Incentives and Voter Turnout: Evidence from the Swiss Mail Ballot System , 2008 .

[91]  M. Lewis-Beck,et al.  TR versus PR: Effects of the French double ballot ☆ , 2008 .

[92]  Explaining Voter Turnout in Taiwan Legislative Elections , 2013 .

[93]  Satoshi Kanazawa,et al.  A New Solution to the Collective Action Problem: The Paradox of Voter Turnout , 2000, American Sociological Review.

[94]  Sean Richey Voting by Mail: Turnout and Institutional Reform in Oregon* , 2008 .

[95]  Christine Fauvelle-Aymar Participation in the 2010 French regional elections: The major impact of a change in the electoral calendar , 2011 .

[96]  E. Plutzer Becoming a Habitual Voter: Inertia, Resources, and Growth in Young Adulthood , 2002, American Political Science Review.

[97]  Peter L. Francia,et al.  The Synergistic Effect of Campaign Effort and Election Reform on Voter Turnout in State Legislative Elections , 2004, State Politics & Policy Quarterly.

[98]  M. Dahan,et al.  Social identity and voting behavior , 2012 .

[99]  Bernard L. Fraga,et al.  Voting Costs and Voter Turnout in Competitive Elections , 2011 .

[100]  C. Fischer "Urbanism as a Way of Life" , 1972 .

[101]  G. Bellettini,et al.  Socio-Economic Heterogeneity and Electoral Turnout: An Aggregate Analysis with Precinct-Level Data , 2014, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[102]  M. Lister Institutions, Inequality and Social Norms: Explaining Variations in Participation , 2007 .

[103]  Anar K. Ahmadov Oil, Democracy, and Context , 2014 .

[104]  Leslie A. Schwindt-Bayer,et al.  Voter Turnout in Presidential Democracies , 2009 .

[105]  Kenneth C. Williams,et al.  Experimental Political Science and the Study of Causality: From Nature to the Lab , 2010 .

[106]  Daniel Stockemer,et al.  The Inequality Turnout Nexus: New Evidence from Presidential Elections , 2014 .

[107]  Jessica Trounstine Turnout and Incumbency in Local Elections , 2013 .

[108]  E. Fumagalli,et al.  Institute for International Integration Studies Political Institutions, Voter Turnout and Policy Outcomes Political Institutions, Voter Turnout and Policy Outcomes Political Institutions, Voter Turnout and Policy Outcomes , 2022 .

[109]  AID US TO WIN THE ELECTIONS: FOREIGN AID AND VOTER TURNOUT , 2011 .

[110]  Dilip Mookherjee,et al.  Capture and Governance at Local and National Levels , 2000 .

[111]  D. Altman Does an Active Use of Mechanisms of Direct Democracy Impact Electoral Participation? Evidence from the U.S. States and the Swiss Cantons , 2013 .

[112]  Søren Serritzlew,et al.  Local News Media and Voter Turnout , 2014 .

[113]  Bernard Grofman,et al.  To vote or not to vote: The paradox of nonvoting , 1984 .

[114]  Eric S. McLaughlin Did Floor-Crossing Alienate South African Voters? Evidence from Municipal Legislatures , 2014 .

[115]  B. Geys,et al.  The Limits of Electoral Control: Evidence from Last‐Term Politicians , 2016 .

[116]  Eiji Yamamura Effects of social norms and fractionalization on voting behaviour in Japan , 2011 .

[117]  Mi-Ra Baek,et al.  A Comparative Analysis of Political Communication Systems and Voter Turnout , 2009 .

[118]  M. Springer State Electoral Institutions and Voter Turnout In Presidential Elections, 1920–2000 , 2012, State Politics & Policy Quarterly.

[119]  W. Shughart,et al.  Corrupt political jurisdictions and voter participation , 2006 .

[120]  J. Galbraith,et al.  State Income Inequality and Presidential Election Turnout and Outcomes , 2008 .

[121]  B. Geys,et al.  (De)Centralization and voter turnout: theory and evidence from German municipalities , 2014 .

[122]  B. Geys Explaining voter turnout: A review of aggregate-level research , 2006 .

[123]  The impact of closeness on electoral participation exploiting the Italian double ballot system , 2013 .

[124]  Justin Wedeking,et al.  People Who Have Their Tickets But Do Not Use Them , 2006 .

[125]  André Blais,et al.  To Vote or Not to Vote , 2000 .

[126]  R. Hogan Campaign Spending and Voter Participation in State Legislative Elections , 2013 .

[127]  A. François,et al.  The impact of closeness on turnout: An empirical relation based on a study of a two-round ballot , 2006 .

[128]  A. Ladner,et al.  The Influence of Direct Democracy on Political Interest, Electoral Turnout and Other Forms of Citizens’ Participation in Swiss Municipalities , 2012 .

[129]  Karen L. Remmer Political Scale and Electoral Turnout: Evidence From the Less Industrialized World , 2010 .

[130]  Lance Y. Hunter,et al.  Impact of electoral volatility and party replacement on voter turnout levels , 2012 .

[131]  Damon M. Cann,et al.  Strategic campaigning, closeness, and voter mobilization in U.S. Presidential elections , 2011 .

[132]  A. Blais,et al.  Do people feel more of a duty to vote in some elections? , 2016 .

[133]  Christopher R. Berry,et al.  Accountability and Local Elections: Rethinking Retrospective Voting , 2007, The Journal of Politics.

[134]  Partisan turnout bias and district magnitude , 2014 .

[135]  Ron Shachar,et al.  Habit-Formation and Political Behaviour: Evidence of Consuetude in Voter Turnout , 2000 .

[136]  Scott Ashworth Electoral Accountability: Recent Theoretical and Empirical Work , 2012 .

[137]  Daniel Stockemer,et al.  Electoral turnout in Muslim-majority states: A macro-level panel analysis , 2013, Politics and Religion.

[138]  M. Hooghe,et al.  How Second Order Are Local Elections? Voting Motives and Party Preferences in Belgian Municipal Elections , 2015 .

[139]  Robert J. Sampson,et al.  Local Friendship Ties and Community Attachment in Mass Society: A Multi-Level Systemic Model , 1988 .

[140]  Michael Thrasher,et al.  Changes in the Probability of Voter Turnout When Resiting Polling Stations: A Case Study in Brent, UK , 2011 .

[141]  Sebastian Garmann A note on electoral competition and turnout in run-off electoral systems: Taking into account both endogeneity and attenuation bias , 2014 .

[142]  Did Bill C-24 Affect Voter Turnout? Evidence from the 2000 and 2004 Elections , 2006, Canadian Journal of Political Science.

[143]  Hristos Doucouliagos,et al.  Democracy and Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis , 2007 .