Ecological Risk Management Framework for the Irrigation Industry

ack process for making changes if needed. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This document outlines an ecological risk assessment framework for the Australian irrigation industry. The objective of the framework is to provide a robust process that will assist the irrigation industry to incorporate a transparent, scientific, precautionary and ecologically sustainable approach to its management of environmental risks. The framework is catchment-based and focuses on the difficult task of assessing the risks to multiple ecological assets from multiple hazards. This catchment-wide approach is needed since irrigation enterprises are normally only one of a number of human activities in the catchment (e.g. dryland grazing, forestry, urban, tourism) that can contribute to the degradation of environmental assets. The framework synthesises the methods required to achieve successful adaptive management of natural resources. The framework was developed by a team using experiences from case studies undertaken in three irrigation districts, the Goulburn-Broken (Victoria), Fitzroy (Queensland) and Ord (Western Australia). Although the focus of this framework is primarily on the risks to aquatic ecosystems (e.g. rivers, wetlands, estuaries), it should be robust enough to also be used to assess the ecological risks to other natural resource assets in catchments (e.g. land, soil, vegetation, biodiversity). The ecological risk assessment framework involves a number of key steps, including: Defining the problem – this involves careful scoping of the problem, agreement on how it is to be assessed, and how the acceptability of actions will be judged. Deciding on the important ecological values and hazards and threats to these values – hazards are evaluated and priorities set by evaluating effects on valued elements of ecosystems and ecosystem services. Analysing the risks to the ecological values – the analysis process used needs to be appropriate for the situation in order to provide adequate information for decision-making. Guidance is provided on both qualitative and quantitative methods. Characterise the risks-the technical details of risk analyses needs to be made accessible to decision-makers and broader stakeholders. In particular, the uncertainties and assumptions associated with analyses require careful and transparent documentation. Making decisions – selection of the best management option or strategy will be the one that results in the effective minimisation of the ecological risks, while also being cost-effective and acceptable to the stakeholders. Guidance is provided on a number of multi-criteria methods for assisting this process. Managing the risks – a risk management plan provides recommendations on managing or mitigating all high or unacceptable …

[1]  Mark A. Burgman,et al.  Risk-Based Approaches to Managing Contaminants in Catchments , 2006 .

[2]  David K. Stevens,et al.  Using Bayesian networks to model watershed management decisions: an East Canyon Creek case study , 2005, WWW 2005.

[3]  Tony Prato,et al.  Bayesian adaptive management of ecosystems , 2005 .

[4]  J. Bromley,et al.  The use of Hugin® to develop Bayesian networks as an aid to integrated water resource planning , 2005, Environ. Model. Softw..

[5]  Daniel Zelterman,et al.  Bayesian Artificial Intelligence , 2005, Technometrics.

[6]  Janet M. Carey,et al.  An Application of Qualitative Risk Assessment in Park Management , 2005 .

[7]  Carmel Pollino,et al.  Fish communities and habitat changes in the highly modified Goulburn Catchment, Victoria, Australia , 2004 .

[8]  James S. Clark,et al.  Why environmental scientists are becoming Bayesians , 2004 .

[9]  P. Bayliss,et al.  Ecological Risk Assessment of Tebuthiuron Following Application on Tropical Australian Wetlands , 2004 .

[10]  Hsin-I Lin,et al.  A bayesian approach to parameter estimation for a crayfish (Procambarus spp): Bioaccumulation model , 2004, Environmental toxicology and chemistry.

[11]  Ca Brown,et al.  Using multicriteria analysis to develop environmental flow scenarios for rivers targeted for water resource management , 2004 .

[12]  B. Hart Environmental risks associated with new irrigation schemes in Northern Australia , 2004 .

[13]  Craig A Stow,et al.  Bayesian methods for regional-scale eutrophication models. , 2004, Water research.

[14]  David E. Robertson,et al.  Bayesian networks for decision analyses — an application to irrigation system selection , 2004 .

[15]  Mark E. Borsuk,et al.  A Bayesian network of eutrophication models for synthesis, prediction, and uncertainty analysis , 2004 .

[16]  G. Hancock,et al.  Onset and persistence of cyanobacterial blooms in a large impounded tropical river, Australia , 2004 .

[17]  Annika Kangas,et al.  Probability, possibility and evidence: approaches to consider risk and uncertainty in forestry decision analysis , 2004 .

[18]  Susan W. Kim,et al.  A length-based Bayesian stock assessment model for the New Zealand abalone Haliotis iris , 2003 .

[19]  Prabhu Pingali,et al.  Why global scenarios need ecology , 2003 .

[20]  Stephen R. Carpenter,et al.  Scenario Planning: a Tool for Conservation in an Uncertain World , 2003, Conservation Biology.

[21]  P. Calow,et al.  Does ecotoxicology inform ecological risk assessment , 2003 .

[22]  Keith R. Hayes,et al.  Identifying Hazards in Complex Ecological Systems. Part 1: Fault-tree Analysis for Biological Invasions , 2002, Biological Invasions.

[23]  Robert Costanza,et al.  Economic Reasons for Conserving Wild Nature , 2002, Science.

[24]  Glenn W Suter,et al.  Determining probable causes of ecological impairment in the Little Scioto River, Ohio, USA: Part 1. Listing candidate causes and analyzing evidence , 2002, Environmental toxicology and chemistry.

[25]  Michał Kozakiewicz,et al.  PROMOTING MORE SUSTAINABLE RURAL LAND USE AND DEVELOPMENT: A CASE STUDY IN EASTERN EUROPE USING BAYESIAN NETWORK MODELS , 2002 .

[26]  P J Bacon,et al.  Belief network models of land manager decisions and land use change. , 2002, Journal of environmental management.

[27]  Helen M. Regan,et al.  A TAXONOMY AND TREATMENT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION BIOLOGY , 2002 .

[28]  R. Leuven,et al.  Riverine landscape dynamics and ecological risk assessment , 2002 .

[29]  VICTOR B. SERVEISS,et al.  Applying Ecological Risk Principles to Watershed Assessment and Management , 2002, Environmental management.

[30]  J. Diamond,et al.  Identifying sources of stress to native aquatic fauna using a watershed ecological risk assessment framework. , 2001, Environmental science & technology.

[31]  I. McKelvie,et al.  Sampling design for total and filterable reactive phosphorus monitoring in a lowland stream: considerations of spatial variability, measurement uncertainty and statistical power. , 2001, Journal of Environmental Monitoring.

[32]  B. Marcot,et al.  Using Bayesian belief networks to evaluate fish and wildlife population viability under land management alternatives from an environmental impact statement , 2001 .

[33]  David Higdon,et al.  A Bayesian hierarchical model to predict benthic oxygen demand from organic matter loading in estuaries and coastal zones , 2001 .

[34]  P. S. Lake On the maturing of restoration: Linking ecological research and restoration , 2001 .

[35]  A. E. Irish,et al.  The ecological basis for simulating phytoplankton responses to environmental change (PROTECH) , 2001 .

[36]  C. Stow,et al.  Long-term changes in watershed nutrient inputs and riverine exports in the Neuse River, North Carolina. , 2001, Water research.

[37]  J. Descy,et al.  Potamon: a dynamic model for predicting phytoplankton composition and biomass in lowland rivers. , 2001, Water research.

[38]  Subrata Kundu,et al.  Calculating and Describing Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: The Bayesian Approach , 2001 .

[39]  C. Duke,et al.  Ecological Risk Assessment Review , 2001 .

[40]  V.M Bier,et al.  On the state of the art: risk communication to the public , 2001, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[41]  Mark A. Burgman,et al.  Flaws in Subjective Assessments of Ecological Risks and Means for Correcting Them , 2001 .

[42]  D. Vose Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide , 2000 .

[43]  Paul D. Jones,et al.  Probabilistic risk assessment of agrochemicals in the environment , 2000 .

[44]  Susan B. Norton,et al.  Assessing ecological risk in watersheds: A case study of problem formulation in the Big Darby Creek watershed, Ohio, USA , 2000 .

[45]  C. Stow Assessing the Relationship Between Pfiesteria and Estuarine Fishkills , 1999, Ecosystems.

[46]  S. R. Jammalamadaka,et al.  Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk , 1999 .

[47]  P. Fairweather State of environment indicators of ‘river health’: exploring the metaphor , 1999 .

[48]  Jessica Glicken,et al.  Effective Public Involvement in Public Decisions , 1999 .

[49]  Adopted August,et al.  Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point Principles and Application Guidelines †. , 1998, Journal of food protection.

[50]  Robert E. Melchers,et al.  Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Engineering Systems , 1997 .

[51]  Lutz E. Schlange Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation , 1997 .

[52]  Wayne G. Landis,et al.  Design considerations and a suggested approach for regional and comparative ecological risk assessment , 1997 .

[53]  Craig A. Stow,et al.  A Bayesian observation error model to predict cyanobacterial biovolume from spring total phosphorus in Lake Mendota, Wisconsin , 1997 .

[54]  David Vose,et al.  Quantitative Risk Analysis: A Guide to Monte Carlo Simulation Modelling , 1996 .

[55]  M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell,et al.  Uncertainties in risk analysis: Six levels of treatment , 1996 .

[56]  Aaron M. Ellison,et al.  AN INTRODUCTION TO BAYESIAN INFERENCE FOR ECOLOGICAL RESEARCH AND ENVIRONMENTAL , 1996 .

[57]  R. Fildes Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation , 1996, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[58]  C. Reynolds,et al.  The production, biomass and structure of phytoplankton in large rivers , 1996 .

[59]  B. Mapstone Scalable Decision Rules for Environmental Impact Studies: Effect Size, Type I, and Type II Errors , 1995 .

[60]  Bernd Rohrmann,et al.  Risk perception of different societal groups: Australian findings and crossnational comparisons , 1994 .

[61]  Carl J. Walters,et al.  Adaptive Management of Renewable Resources , 1986 .

[62]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  Lay Foibles and Expert Fables in Judgments about Risk , 1982 .

[63]  R. L. Keeney,et al.  Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Trade-Offs , 1977, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics.

[64]  F. H. Rigler,et al.  The phosphorus‐chlorophyll relationship in lakes1,2 , 1974 .

[65]  Kevin Henry,et al.  Risk Management and Analysis , 2007, Information Security Management Handbook, 6th ed..

[66]  Kevin B. Korb,et al.  Parameterising Bayesian networks: a case study in ecological risk assessment , 2005 .

[67]  T. Chan,et al.  Ecological Risk Associated with Irrigation Systems in the Goulburn-Broken Catchment - Phase II: Priority Risk - Blue Green Algal Blooms , 2004 .

[68]  A. Smith,et al.  MANAGEMENT STRATEGY EVALUATION-THE LIGHT ON THE HILL , 2004 .

[69]  Wellesley Site,et al.  What is an Ecological Risk Assessment ? , 2004 .

[70]  Janet M. Carey,et al.  Risk Assessment and the concept of Ecosystem Condition in Park Management , 2004 .

[71]  Mark E. Borsuk,et al.  Enhancing Causal Assessment of Estuarine Fishkills Using Graphical Models , 2003, Ecosystems.

[72]  Tom Beer,et al.  Environmental Risk and Sustainability , 2003 .

[73]  Friedrich Recknagel,et al.  Ecological Informatics: Understanding Ecology by Biologically-Inspired Computation , 2003 .

[74]  B. Hart,et al.  Environmental Risks from Salinity Increases in the Goulburn-Broken Catchment , 2002 .

[75]  Mark E. Borsuk,et al.  Integrative environmental prediction using Bayesian networks: A synthesis of models describing estuarine eutrophication , 2002 .

[76]  Shane Seaton,et al.  New software to aid water quality management in the catchments and waterways of the south-east Queensland region , 2001 .

[77]  Carl Binning,et al.  Natural Assets: An Inventory of Ecosystem Goods and Services in the Goulburn Broken Catchment , 2001 .

[78]  B. Hart,et al.  Application of Ecological Risk Assessment in River Management , 2001 .

[79]  B. Hart,et al.  Assessment of Ecological Risk Associated with Irrigation Systems in the Goulburn Broken Catchment , 2001 .

[80]  Mary O'Brien,et al.  Making Better Environmental Decisions: An Alternative to Risk Assessment , 2000 .

[81]  Bernard Roy,et al.  Decision-Aiding Today: What Should We Expect? , 1999 .

[82]  Roy Silver,et al.  Tools for Understanding the Socioeconomic and Political Settings for Environmental Decision Making , 1999 .

[83]  C. Alexander,et al.  Risk Management and Analysis , 1998 .

[84]  F. B. Vernadat,et al.  Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs , 1994 .

[85]  A M Kellerer,et al.  Risk perception , 1993, Nature.