Divided Majority and Information Aggregation: Theory and Experiment

We propose a theory-based experimental approach to compare the properties of approval voting (AV) with thoseof plurality. This comparison is motivated by the theoretical prediction that, in our aggregate uncertainty setup,AV should produce close to first-best outcomes,while pluralitywill not. The experiment shows, first, thatwelfaregains are substantial. Second, both aggregate and individual responses are in line with theoretical predictions,and thus with strategic voting. Finally, subjects' behavior under AV highlights the need to study equilibria inasymmetric strategies.

[1]  Nils-Christian Bormann,et al.  Democratic Electoral Systems around the world, 1946–2020 , 2005, Electoral Studies.

[2]  Jaehoon Kim,et al.  The swing voter's curse with adversarial preferences , 2007, J. Econ. Theory.

[3]  François Maniquet,et al.  On the informational efficiency of simple scoring rules , 2011, J. Econ. Theory.

[4]  T. Piketty,et al.  The information-aggregation approach to political institutions , 1999 .

[5]  T. Feddersen,et al.  Voting Behavior and Information Aggregation in Elections with Private Information , 1997 .

[6]  Rachel T. A. Croson,et al.  The Gambler’s Fallacy and the Hot Hand: Empirical Data from Casinos , 2005 .

[7]  Three-way Experimental Election Results: Strategic Voting, Coordinated Outcomes and Duverger's Law , 2008 .

[8]  R. Weber,et al.  A Theory of Voting Equilibria , 1993, American Political Science Review.

[9]  Ignacio Esponda,et al.  Hypothetical Thinking and Information Extraction in the Laboratory , 2014 .

[10]  Timothy N. Cason,et al.  Testing the TASP: An experimental investigation of learning in games with unstable equilibria , 2010, J. Econ. Theory.

[11]  Roger B. Myerson,et al.  Population uncertainty and Poisson games , 1998, Int. J. Game Theory.

[12]  Jonathan Nagler,et al.  A New Approach for Modelling Strategic Voting in Multiparty Elections , 2000, British Journal of Political Science.

[13]  J. Morgan,et al.  Overcoming Ideological Bias in Elections , 2010, Journal of Political Economy.

[14]  Jörg L. Spenkuch On the Extent of Strategic Voting , 2013 .

[15]  Vijay Krishna,et al.  Voluntary voting: Costs and benefits , 2012, J. Econ. Theory.

[16]  Roger B. Myerson,et al.  An Experimental Study of Voting Rules and Polls in Three- Way Elections , 1991 .

[17]  A. Tversky,et al.  BELIEF IN THE LAW OF SMALL NUMBERS , 1971, Pediatrics.

[18]  J. Goeree,et al.  AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY OF COLLECTIVE DELIBERATION , 2011 .

[19]  D. Friedman,et al.  Buyer search and price dispersion:a laboratory study , 2003 .

[20]  Aniol Llorente-Saguer,et al.  A Simple Mechanism for Resolving Conflict , 2008, Games Econ. Behav..

[21]  Micael Castanheira,et al.  The Condorcet-Duverger Trade-Off: swing voters and voting equilibria , 2009 .

[22]  K. Arrow Social Choice and Individual Values , 1951 .

[23]  Sourav Bhattacharya Preference Monotonicity and Information Aggregation in Elections , 2008 .

[24]  Thomas A. Rietz,et al.  An experiment on coordination in multi-candidate elections: The importance of polls and election histories , 1993 .

[25]  Jean-François Laslier,et al.  The Leader Rule , 2009 .

[26]  Matías Núñez,et al.  Condorcet Consistency of Approval Voting: a Counter Example in Large Poisson Games , 2010 .

[27]  A. McLennan Consequences of the Condorcet Jury Theorem for Beneficial Information Aggregation by Rational Agents , 1998, American Political Science Review.

[28]  Thomas A. Rietz,et al.  Minority Representation in Multimember Districts , 1998, American Political Science Review.

[29]  Dino Gerardi,et al.  Jury Verdicts and Preference Diversity , 2000, American Political Science Review.

[30]  Roger B. Myerson,et al.  Comparison of Scoring Rules in Poisson Voting Games , 2002, J. Econ. Theory.

[31]  Michael Mandler The Fragility of Information Aggregation in Large Elections , 2011 .

[32]  David P. Myatt On the Theory of Strategic Voting , 2007 .

[33]  D. Saari,et al.  The problem of indeterminacy in approval, multiple, and truncated voting systems , 1988 .

[34]  D. Brogan,et al.  Political Parties: Their Organization and Activity in the Modern State . By Maurice Duverger. Translated by Barbara and Robert North. (New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 1954. Pp. xxxvii, 439.) , 1955, American Political Science Review.

[35]  Steven Callander,et al.  Majority rule when voters like to win , 2008, Games Econ. Behav..

[36]  Charles A. Holt,et al.  Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects , 2002 .

[37]  T. Feddersen,et al.  Deliberation, Preference Uncertainty, and Voting Rules , 2006, American Political Science Review.

[38]  César Martinelli,et al.  Would rational voters acquire costly information? , 2006, J. Econ. Theory.

[39]  Sourav Bhattacharya,et al.  Compulsory versus voluntary voting: An experimental study , 2014, Games Econ. Behav..

[40]  T. Palfrey Experiments in Political Economy , 2013 .

[41]  Philip J. Cook,et al.  Notes: The Gambler's Fallacy in Lottery Play , 1993 .

[42]  Charles T. Clotfelter,et al.  The "Gambler&Apos;S Fallacy" in Lottery Play , 1991 .

[43]  Thomas A. Rietz,et al.  An experimental study of voting rules and polls in three-candidate elections , 1996 .

[44]  David P. Myatt,et al.  Leading the Party: Coordination, Direction, and Communication , 2006, American Political Science Review.

[45]  César Martinelli,et al.  Simple plurality versus plurality runoff with privately informed voters , 2002, Soc. Choice Welf..

[46]  T. Feddersen,et al.  Rational Choice Theory and the Paradox of Not Voting , 2004 .

[47]  Alvaro Sandroni,et al.  Moral Bias in Large Elections: Theory and Experimental Evidence , 2009, American Political Science Review.

[48]  T. Feddersen,et al.  Convicting the Innocent: The Inferiority of Unanimous Jury Verdicts under Strategic Voting , 1996, American Political Science Review.

[49]  Peter J. Coughlan In Defense of Unanimous Jury Verdicts: Mistrials, Communication, and Strategic Voting , 2000, American Political Science Review.

[50]  Ivars Peterson,et al.  Making votes count , 1963 .

[51]  Laurent Bouton,et al.  One Person, Many Votes: Divided Majority and Information Aggregation , 2008 .

[52]  Jean-François Laslier Laboratory Experiments on Approval Voting , 2010 .

[53]  Thomas R. Palfrey,et al.  A mathematical proof of Duverger's Law , 1988 .

[54]  Jean-François Laslier,et al.  A live experiment on approval voting , 2008 .

[55]  Robert W. Rosenthal,et al.  Testing the Minimax Hypothesis: A Re-examination of O'Neill's Game Experiment , 1990 .

[56]  W. Riker,et al.  The Two-party System and Duverger's Law: An Essay on the History of Political Science , 1982, American Political Science Review.

[57]  T. Piketty,et al.  Voting as Communicating , 2000 .

[58]  U. Fischbacher z-Tree: Zurich toolbox for ready-made economic experiments , 1999 .

[59]  Arnaud Dellis,et al.  Multiple Votes, Ballot Truncation and the Two-Party System: An Experiment , 2008 .

[60]  Roger B. Myerson,et al.  Theoretical Comparisons of Electoral Systems , 1998 .

[61]  Nicolas de Condorcet Essai Sur L'Application de L'Analyse a la Probabilite Des Decisions Rendues a la Pluralite Des Voix , 2009 .

[62]  Douglas Muzzio,et al.  Approval voting , 1983 .

[63]  Marco Battaglini,et al.  The Swing Voter's Curse in the Laboratory , 2006 .

[64]  Charles R. Plott,et al.  Committee Decisions under Majority Rule: An Experimental Study , 1978, American Political Science Review.

[65]  Joseph McMurray,et al.  Aggregating Information by Voting: The Wisdom of the Experts versus the Wisdom of the Masses , 2013 .

[66]  Laurent Bouton,et al.  Technical Appendix 1 to "Majority Runo Elections: Strategic Voting and Duverger's Hypothesis" , 2013 .

[67]  J. Banks,et al.  Information Aggregation, Rationality, and the Condorcet Jury Theorem , 1996, American Political Science Review.

[68]  Ruth C. Silva,et al.  Making votes count , 1963 .

[69]  Ben Greiner,et al.  An Online Recruitment System for Economic Experiments , 2004 .

[70]  P. Bond,et al.  Strategic Voting Over Strategic Proposals , 2007 .

[71]  Micael Castanheira WHY VOTE FOR LOSERS , 2003 .

[72]  Santiago Oliveros Aggregation of endogenous information in large elections , 2013 .

[73]  Laurent Bouton A Theory of Strategic Voting in Runoff Elections , 2013 .

[74]  Michael Mandler,et al.  The Fragility of Information Aggregation in Large Elections , 2011, Games Econ. Behav..

[75]  A. Blais,et al.  Direct or indirect? Assessing two approaches to the measurement of strategic voting , 2005 .

[76]  Matías Núñez,et al.  The strategic sincerity of Approval voting , 2014 .

[77]  R. McKelvey,et al.  An Experimental Study of Jury Decision Rules , 2000, American Political Science Review.

[78]  R. Niemi The Problem of Strategic Behavior under Approval Voting , 1984, American Political Science Review.

[79]  R. Myerson Extended Poisson Games and the Condorcet Jury Theorem , 1998 .

[80]  Marco Battaglini,et al.  Information Aggregation and Strategic Abstention in Large Laboratory Elections , 2008 .

[81]  J. L. Cowan,et al.  The Gambler's Fallacy , 1969 .

[82]  Thomas A. Rietz,et al.  Majority Requirements and Minority Representation , 2007 .

[83]  Thomas Fujiwara A Regression Discontinuity Test of Strategic Voting and Duverger's Law ∗ , 2011 .

[84]  Navin Kartik,et al.  Information aggregation in standing and ad hoc committees , 2008 .

[85]  N. Persico Committee Design with Endogenous Information , 2004 .

[86]  Yasutora Watanabe,et al.  Inferring Strategic Voting , 2012 .

[87]  T. Feddersen,et al.  The Swing Voter's Curse , 1996 .

[88]  David S. Ahn,et al.  Combinatorial Voting ∗ , 2008 .

[89]  John Morgan,et al.  Mixed Motives and the Optimal Size of Voting Bodies , 2012, Journal of Political Economy.

[90]  Micael Castanheira Why Vote for Losers? , 1998 .

[91]  Mark Fey,et al.  Stability and Coordination in Duverger's Law: A Formal Model of Preelection Polls and Strategic Voting , 1997, American Political Science Review.

[92]  D. Felsenthal,et al.  Electoral systems : paradoxes, assumptions, and procedures , 2012 .