Earthquake hazard in Marmara Region, Turkey

Abstract Earthquake hazard in the Marmara Region, Turkey has been investigated using time-independent probabilistic (simple Poissonian) and time-dependent probabilistic (renewal) models. The study culminated in hazard maps of the Marmara Region depicting peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral accelerations (SA)'s at 0.2 and 1 s periods corresponding to 10 and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 yrs. The historical seismicity, the tectonic models and the known slip rates along the faults constitute the main data used in the assignment. Based on recent findings it has been possible to provide a fault segmentation model for the Marmara Sea. For the main Marmara Fault this model essentially identifies fault segments for different structural, tectonic and geometrical features and historical earthquake occurrences. The damage distribution and pattern of the historical earthquakes have been carefully correlated with this fault segmentation model. The inter-event time period between characteristic earthquakes in these segments is consistently estimated by dividing the seismic slip estimated from the earthquake catalog by the GPS-derived slip rate of 22±3 mm/yr. The remaining segments in the eastern and southern Marmara region are also identified using recent geological, geophysical studies and historical earthquakes. The model assumes that seismic energy along the segments is released by characteristic earthquakes. For the probabilistic studies characteristic earthquake based recurrence relationships are used. Assuming normal distribution of inter-arrival times of characteristic earthquakes, the ‘mean recurrence time’, ‘covariance’ and the ‘time since last earthquake’ are developed for each segment. For the renewal model, the conditional probability for each fault segment is calculated from the mean recurrence interval of the characteristic earthquake, the elapsed time since the last major earthquake and the exposure period. The probabilities are conditional since they change as a function of the time elapsed since the last earthquake. For the background earthquake activity, a spatially smoothed seismicity is determined for each cell of a grid composed of cells of size 0.005°×0.005°. The ground motions are determined for soft rock (NEHRP B/C boundary) conditions. Western US-based attenuation relationships are utilized, since they show a good correlation with the attenuation characteristics of ground motion in the Marmara region. The possibility, that an event ruptures several fault segments (i.e. cascading), is also taken into account and investigated by two possible models of cascading. Differences between Poissonian and renewal models, and also the effect of cascading have been discussed with the help of PGA ratio maps.