Stochastic volatility as a simple generator of apparent financial power laws and long memory

There has been renewed interest in power laws and various types of self-similarity in many financial time series. Most of these tests are visual in nature, and do not consider a wide range of possible candidate stochastic models capable of generating the observed results in small samples. This paper presents a relatively simple stochastic volatility model, which is able to produce visual power laws and long memory similar to those from actual return series using comparable sample sizes. These are small-sample features for the stochastic volatility model, since asymptotically it possesses none of these properties. The primary mechanism for this result is that volatility is assumed to have a driving process with a half life that is long relative to the tested aggregation ranges. It is argued that this might be a reasonable feature for financial, and other macroeconomic time series.

[1]  C. Granger Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models , 1980 .

[2]  R. Mantegna,et al.  Zipf plots and the size distribution of firms , 1995 .

[3]  J. Poterba,et al.  What moves stock prices? , 1988 .

[4]  J. Bouchaud Power-Laws in Economy and Finance: Some Ideas from Physics , 2000, cond-mat/0008103.

[5]  P. Franses The Econometric Modelling of Financial Time Series: Second Edition, Terence C. Mills, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999) 380 pages, Paperback; ISBN 0521-62492-4 ($27.95). Hardback: ISBN 0521-62413-4 ($80.00) , 2000 .

[6]  Marcia M. A. Schafgans,et al.  The tail index of exchange rate returns , 1990 .

[7]  Xavier Gabaix,et al.  Price fluctuations, market activity and trading volume , 2001 .

[8]  H. White,et al.  Data‐Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance, and the Bootstrap , 1999 .

[9]  G. Schwert Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time? , 1988 .

[10]  R. Mantegna,et al.  Scaling behaviour in the dynamics of an economic index , 1995, Nature.

[11]  Harry Eugene Stanley,et al.  Econophysics: can physicists contribute to the science of economics? , 1999, Comput. Sci. Eng..

[12]  R. Cont Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues , 2001 .

[13]  Francis X. Diebold,et al.  Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility , 2001 .

[14]  C. Granger,et al.  A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model , 1993 .

[15]  Jiang Wang,et al.  Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns , 1992 .

[16]  R. Engle,et al.  A Permanent and Transitory Component Model of Stock Return Volatility , 1993 .

[17]  S. Solomon,et al.  A microscopic model of the stock market: Cycles, booms, and crashes , 1994 .

[18]  V. Plerou,et al.  Scaling of the distribution of price fluctuations of individual companies. , 1999, Physical review. E, Statistical physics, plasmas, fluids, and related interdisciplinary topics.

[19]  Clive W. J. Granger,et al.  Occasional Structural Breaks and Long Memory , 1999 .

[20]  M. Dacorogna,et al.  Extremal Forex Returns in Extremely Large Data Sets , 2001 .

[21]  Daniel A. Lidar,et al.  Is the Geometry of Nature Fractal? , 1998, Science.

[22]  Laurent E. Calvet,et al.  Multifractality in Asset Returns: Theory and Evidence , 2002, Review of Economics and Statistics.

[23]  B. LeBaron Some Relations between Volatility and Serial Correlations in Stock Market Returns , 1992 .

[24]  M. Serva,et al.  Multiscale behaviour of volatility autocorrelations in a financial market , 1998, cond-mat/9810232.

[25]  Rosario N. Mantegna,et al.  Modeling of financial data: Comparison of the truncated Lévy flight and the ARCH(1) and GARCH(1,1) processes , 1998 .

[26]  P. Clark A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices , 1973 .

[27]  Eric Ghysels,et al.  On Stable Factor Structures in the Pricing of Risk: Do Time-Varying Betas Help or Hurt? , 1998 .

[28]  Jan Beran,et al.  Statistics for long-memory processes , 1994 .

[29]  B. LeBaron,et al.  Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns , 1992 .

[30]  P. M. Hui,et al.  From market games to real-world markets , 2001 .

[31]  Michael W. Brandt,et al.  High- and Low-Frequency Exchange Rate Volatility Dynamics: Range-Based Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models , 2001 .

[32]  F. Breidt,et al.  The detection and estimation of long memory in stochastic volatility , 1998 .

[33]  Daniel A. Lidar,et al.  Scaling range and cutoffs in empirical fractals , 1997 .

[34]  R. Shiller,et al.  Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends , 1988 .

[35]  C. Granger,et al.  Varieties of long memory models , 1996 .

[36]  B. Mandlebrot The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices , 1963 .

[37]  M. Dacorogna,et al.  Defining efficiency in heterogeneous markets , 2001 .

[38]  Howard M. Taylor,et al.  On the Distribution of Stock Price Differences , 1967, Oper. Res..

[39]  J. Doyne Farmer,et al.  Physicists attempt to scale the ivory towers of finance , 1999, Comput. Sci. Eng..

[40]  Gilles Teyssière,et al.  Microeconomic Models for Long Memory in the Volatility of Financial Time Series , 2001 .

[41]  M. Dacorogna,et al.  Statistical study of foreign exchange rates, empirical evidence of a price change scaling law, and intraday analysis , 1990 .

[42]  Thomas Mikosch,et al.  Change of structure in financial time series, long range dependence and the GARCH model , 1998 .

[43]  P. Phillips,et al.  Testing the covariance stationarity of heavy-tailed time series: An overview of the theory with applications to several financial datasets , 1994 .

[44]  R. Baillie,et al.  Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity , 1996 .

[45]  M. Ausloos,et al.  Multi-affine analysis of typical currency exchange rates , 1998 .

[46]  Jean-Philippe Bouchaud,et al.  On a Universal Mechanism for Long Ranged Volatility Correlations , 2000 .

[47]  H. Geman,et al.  Order Flow, Transaction Clock, and Normality of Asset Returns , 2000 .

[48]  Blake LeBaron,et al.  Empirical regularities from interacting long- and short-memory investors in an agent-based stock market , 2001, IEEE Trans. Evol. Comput..

[49]  Francis X. Diebold,et al.  Long Memory and Structural Change , 1999 .

[50]  T. Lux Multi-Fractal Processes as Models for Financial Returns: A First Assessment , 1999 .