Prospects for Lone Wolf and SIMAD terrorism

The recent terror events committed by individuals in the streets of Jerusalem, the Canadian Parliament and in New York have raised attention to the phenomena of Lone Wolf terrorism. While there is no internationally-agreed upon definition, generally a lone wolf (LW) is described as a single individual acting essentially alone who kills or injures people or significantly damages infrastructure to bring about political, religious, or ideological aims, to right perceived wrongs, to gain recognition or in response to schizophrenic aberrations or other insane impulses. We call a LW with intent to use weapons of mass destruction resulting in a high number of casualties “SIMAD” standing for “Single Individual Massively Destructive.” A new kind of arms race is developing. On the one hand, massively lethal weapons are becoming available to individuals who intend to use them, and on the other hand, methods of mass surveillance and for apprehending such individuals are increasing as well. Will the methods of detection be adequate and timely enough to avoid catastrophe? The outcomes of this race are important because weapons that become available to LWs will have enormous destructive power, and interdiction in their acquisition may involve new and repressive social constraints. No matter which way the scale tips, the world changes. To reach a broader understanding of this threat, the Israel Node of The Millennium Project initiated a Real-Time Delphi study of prospects for LW terrorism with the participation of some 60 worldwide experts in the field of security and other related specialties. The participants generally had high confidence in their answers, but there were some sharp and important disagreements. We have early warning about this issue; we should use this time to better understand it, and take steps to mitigate or avoid its threats.