Application of Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis (FFTA) to maritime industry: A risk analysing of ship mooring operation

Abstract Risk assessment has always been a serious concern in maritime transportation since shipping activities can pose potential harm to human life, commodity and maritime environment. Maritime safety researchers, in this context, are trying to enhance risk mitigation measures. This paper attempts to provide an insight into a process of accident development related to risks in ship mooring operation which presents a great challenge for ship's crew. A Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis (FFTA) is adopted to perform systematic risk analysing on the case of ship mooring operation. The FFTA is capable of tackling limitations of conventional Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) where handling the uncertainties is possible with fuzz logic theory. A real maritime accident is analysed considering potential risks: the case of M/T Zarga which occurred during berthing manoeuvring to LNG (Liquefied Neutral Gas) terminal. The ship crew was seriously injured on his head during accident. To this end a risk model is developed and some risk control options are proposed. Besides handling data shortage in maritime risk assessment, this paper provides practical contributions to maritime professionals in course of risk mitigation and accident prevention.

[1]  E. Celik,et al.  An interval type-2 fuzzy QUALIFLEX approach to measure performance effectiveness of ballast water treatment (BWT) system on-board ship , 2018, Ships and Offshore Structures.

[2]  E Akyuz,et al.  APPLICATION OF FUZZY FMEA TO PERFORM AN EXTENSIVE RISK ANALYSIS IN MARITIME TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING , 2017, International Journal of Maritime Engineering.

[3]  Ayhan Mentes,et al.  An application of fuzzy fault tree analysis for spread mooring systems , 2011 .

[4]  P. Chen,et al.  Risk analysis of maritime accidents in an estuary: a case study of Shenzhen Waters , 2015 .

[5]  John Andrews,et al.  Reliability and Risk Assessment , 1994 .

[6]  Erkan Celik,et al.  Application of AHP and VIKOR Methods under Interval Type 2 Fuzzy Environment in Maritime Transportation , 2017 .

[7]  Metin Celik,et al.  An extension to Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis (FFTA) application in petrochemical process industry , 2015 .

[8]  Muhittin Celik,et al.  A risk-based modelling approach to enhance shipping accident investigation , 2010 .

[9]  Chen-Tung Chen,et al.  Aggregation of fuzzy opinions under group decision making , 1996, Fuzzy Sets Syst..

[10]  Bekir Sahin,et al.  Fault Tree Analysis of chemical cargo contamination by using fuzzy approach , 2015, Expert Syst. Appl..

[11]  Emre Akyuz,et al.  Utilisation of Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis (FFTA) for quantified risk analysis of leakage in abandoned oil and natural-gas wells , 2015 .

[12]  M. P. Lee,et al.  Branch technical position on the use of expert elicitation in the high-level radioactive waste program , 1996 .

[13]  Denis Njumo Atehnjia,et al.  Risk Assessment of FPSOs Tandem Offloading Operation , 2017 .

[14]  Bekir Sahin,et al.  Consistency control and expert consistency prioritization for FFTA by using extent analysis method of trapezoidal FAHP , 2017, Appl. Soft Comput..

[15]  T. Onisawa An approach to human reliability on man-machine systems using error possibility , 1988 .

[16]  Hakan Akyildiz,et al.  A FSA based fuzzy DEMATEL approach for risk assessment of cargo ships at coasts and open seas of Turkey , 2015 .

[17]  A. D. Swain,et al.  Handbook of human-reliability analysis with emphasis on nuclear power plant applications. Final report , 1983 .

[18]  Huibert Kwakernaak,et al.  Rating and ranking of multiple-aspect alternatives using fuzzy sets , 1976, Autom..

[19]  Dong Yuhua,et al.  Estimation of failure probability of oil and gas transmission pipelines by fuzzy fault tree analysis , 2005 .

[20]  Erkan Celik,et al.  A hybrid risk-based approach for maritime applications: The case of ballast tank maintenance , 2017 .

[21]  Faisal Khan,et al.  Risk Assessment and Safety Evaluation Using Probabilistic Fault Tree Analysis , 2001 .

[22]  Uday Kumar,et al.  Fuzzy fault tree analysis: a review of concept and application , 2013, Int. J. Syst. Assur. Eng. Manag..

[23]  Nieves Endrina,et al.  Risk analysis for RoPax vessels: A case of study for the Strait of Gibraltar , 2018 .