POPULATION OF SOHO/STEREO KREUTZ SUNGRAZERS AND THE ARRIVAL OF COMET C/2011 W3 (LOVEJOY)

We examine properties of the population of SOHO/STEREO (dwarf) Kreutz sungrazing comets from 2004 to 2013, including the arrival rates, peculiar gaps, and a potential relationship to the spectacular comet C/2011 W3 (Lovejoy). Selection effects, influencing the observed distribution, are largely absent among bright dwarf sungrazers, whose temporal sequence implies the presence of a swarm, with objects brighter at maximum than an apparent magnitude of 3 arriving at a peak rate of ∼4.6 yr−1 in late 2010, while those brighter than magnitude 2 arrived at a peak rate of ∼4.3 yr−1 in early 2011, both a few times the pre-swarm rate. The entire population of SOHO/STEREO Kreutz sungrazers also peaked about one year before the appearance of C/2011 W3. Orbital data show, however, that a great majority of bright dwarf sungrazers moved in paths similar to that of comet C/1843 D1, deviating 10° or more from the orbit of C/2011 W3 in the angular elements. The evidence from the swarm and the overall elevated arrival rates suggests the existence of a fragmented sizable sungrazer that shortly preceded C/2011 W3 but was independent of it. On the other hand, these findings represent another warning signal that the expected 21st century cluster of spectacular Kreutz comets is on its way to perihelion, to arrive during the coming decades. It is only in this sense that we find a parallel link between C/2011 W3 and the spikes in the population of SOHO/STEREO Kreutz sungrazers.