Multicriteria Comparison Among Several Mitigation Strategies for Dangerous Near-Earth Objects

In this paper a comparative assessment of the effectiveness of different deviation methods for Near Earth Objects is presented. Specifically, solar collector, nuclear interceptor, kinetic impactor, low-thrust propulsion, mass driver and gravity tug are modelled and compared. For each method, a mathematical model is developed in order to compute the achievable deviation. A multi-criteria optmization method is then used to construct the set of Pareto optimal solutions, minimizing the mass of the spacecraft at departure from the Earth and the warning time, i.e., the time from launch to the foreseen impact of the asteroid with the Earth, while at the same time maximizing the deviation. A dominance criterion is defined and used to compare all the Pareto sets for all the various mitigation strategies. Finally a Technology Readiness Level factor is associated to each strategy in order to estimate the required technological development.

[1]  John M. Hedgepeth,et al.  Structural concepts for large solar concentrators , 1986 .

[2]  Constantinos Mavroidis,et al.  Mechanical Design and Modelling of a Robotic Planetary Drilling System , 2006 .

[3]  Stanley G. Love,et al.  Gravitational tractor for towing asteroids , 2005, Nature.

[4]  Alan W. Harris,et al.  The Rotation Rates of Very Small Asteroids: Evidence for Rubble-Pile Structure , 1996 .

[5]  Akira Fujiwara,et al.  Hayabusa—Its technology and science accomplishment summary and Hayabusa-2 , 2006 .

[6]  P. L. Smith,et al.  DEFLECTING A NEAR EARTH OBJECT WITH TODAY'S SPACE TECHNOLOGY , 2004 .

[7]  Colin R. McInnes,et al.  Assessment on the feasibility of future shepherding of asteroid resources , 2010 .

[8]  Massimiliano Vasile,et al.  Consequences of Asteroid Fragmentation During Impact Hazard Mitigation , 2010 .

[9]  I. Michael Ross,et al.  Two-Body Optimization for Deflecting Earth-Crossing Asteroids , 1999 .

[10]  Christopher D. Hall,et al.  Dynamics and Control Problems in the Deflection of Near-Earth Objects , 1997 .

[11]  Kyu-Hong Choi,et al.  Spacecraft formation flying for Earth-crossing object deflections using a power limited laser ablating , 2009 .

[12]  T. Ylikorpi,et al.  Defining the Technical Requirements for Subsurface Mars Driller , 2003 .

[13]  D. Scheeres,et al.  Control of Hovering Spacecraft Near Small Bodies: Application to Asteroid 25143 Itokawa , 2005 .

[14]  Colin R. McInnes,et al.  Deflection of near-Earth asteroids by kinetic energy impacts from retrograde orbits , 2004 .

[15]  G. Valsecchi.  Close encounters and collisions of Near-Earth asteroids with the Earth , 2005 .

[16]  James D. Blacic,et al.  Report on Conceptual Systems Analysis of Drilling Systems for 200-m-Depth Penetration and Sampling of the Martian Subsurface , 2000 .

[17]  Massimiliano Vasile,et al.  Semi-Analytical Solution for the Optimal Low-Thrust Deflection of Near-Earth Objects , 2009 .

[18]  C. Sagan.  Pale blue dot : a vision of the human future in space , 1994 .

[19]  K. Holsapple.  THE SCALING OF IMPACT PROCESSES IN PLANETARY SCIENCES , 1993 .

[20]  R. Battin.  An introduction to the mathematics and methods of astrodynamics , 1987 .

[21]  James Roger P. Angel,et al.  Stretched membrane with electrostatic curvature (SMEC): a new technology for ultralightweight space telescopes , 2000, Astronomical Telescopes + Instrumentation.

[22]  Massimiliano Vasile,et al.  Preliminary Design of Low-Thrust Multiple Gravity-Assist Trajectories , 2006 .

[23]  Massimiliano Vasile.  Robust Mission Design Through Evidence Theory and Multiagent Collaborative Search , 2005, Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences.

[24]  David J. Moorhouse,et al.  Detailed Definitions and Guidance for Application of Technology Readiness Levels , 2002 .

[25]  Massimiliano Vasile.  A multi-mirror solution for the deflection of dangerous NEOS , 2008 .

[26]  Colin R. McInnes,et al.  Near Earth Object Orbit Modification Using Gravitational Coupling , 2007 .

[27]  Andrea Boattini,et al.  Deflecting NEOs in Route of Collision with the Earth , 2002 .

[28]  M. Vorontsov,et al.  Adaptive laser beam projection on an extended target: phase- and field-conjugate precompensation. , 2007, Journal of the Optical Society of America. A, Optics, image science, and vision.

[29]  Paolo Ferri,et al.  Rosetta : ESA's comet chaser already making its mark , 2005 .

[30]  J. Junkins,et al.  Analytical Mechanics of Space Systems , 2003 .

[31]  Daniel J. Scheeres,et al.  Close Proximity Operations for Implementing Mitigation Strategies , 2004 .

[32]  Daniel J. Scheeres,et al.  The Mechanics of Moving Asteroids , 2004 .

[33]  Massimiliano Vasile,et al.  On the deflection of asteroids with mirrors , 2010 .

[34]  P. Lehmann,et al.  Acceleration of a Suborbital Payload Using an Electromagnetic Railgun , 2007, IEEE Transactions on Magnetics.

[35]  T. Ahrens,et al.  Deflection and fragmentation of near-Earth asteroids , 1992, Nature.

[36]  M. Thomas.  Inflatable space structures , 1992, IEEE Potentials.

[37]  Bruce A. Conway,et al.  Near-Optimal Deflection of Earth-Approaching Asteroids , 2001 .

[38]  Akihiko Hashimoto,et al.  Evaporation of single crystal forsterite: evaporation kinetics, magnesium isotope fractionation, and implications of mass-dependent isotopic fractionation of a diffusion-controlled reservoir , 1999 .

[39]  H. Melosh,et al.  NON-NUCLEAR STRATEGIES FOR DEFLECTING COMETS AND ASTEROIDS , 2021, Hazards Due to Comets and Asteroids.

[40]  Christie Alisa Maddock,et al.  Comparison of Single and Multi-Spacecraft Configurations for NEA Deflection by Solar Sublimation , 2007 .

[41]  I. Michael Ross,et al.  Gravitational Effects of Earth in Optimizing ?V for Deflecting Earth-Crossing Asteroids , 2001 .

[42]  R. P. Young,et al.  Experimental hypervelocity impact effects on simulated planetesimal materials , 1994 .

[43]  J. Olympio.  Optimal Control of Gravity-Tractor Spacecraft for Asteroid Deflection , 2010 .

[44]  J. Spitale.  Asteroid Hazard Mitigation Using the Yarkovsky Effect , 2002, Science.

[45]  James R. Wertz,et al.  Space Mission Analysis and Design , 1992 .

[46]  Massimiliano Vasile,et al.  Optimal impact strategies for asteroid deflection , 2008, ArXiv.

[47]  John L. Remo,et al.  Neo interaction with nuclear radiation , 1995 .

[48]  John C. Mankins,et al.  Approaches to strategic research and technology (R&T) analysis and road mapping , 2002 .