Projected Progression of the Prevalence of Obesity in Australia

Several country‐specific and global projections of the future obesity prevalence have been conducted. However, these projections are obtained by extrapolating past prevalence of obesity or distributions of body weight. More accurate would be to base estimates on the most recent measures of weight change. Using measures of overweight and obesity incidence from a national, longitudinal study, we estimated the future obesity prevalence in Australian adults. Participants were adults aged ≥25 years in 2000 participating in the Australian Diabetes, Obesity, and Lifestyle (AusDiab) study (baseline 2000, follow‐up 2005). In this population, approximately one‐fifth of those with normal weight or overweight progressed to a higher weight category within 5 years. Between 2000 and 2025, the adult prevalence of normal weight was estimated to decrease from 40.6 to 28.1% and the prevalence of obesity to increase from 20.5 to 33.9%. By the time, those people aged 25–29 in 2000 reach 60–64 years, 22.1% will be normal weight, and 42.4% will be obese. On average, normal‐weight females aged 25–29 years in 2000 will live another 56.2 years: 26.6 years with normal weight, 15.6 years with overweight, and 14.0 years with obesity. Normal‐weight males aged 25–29 years in 2000 will live another 51.5 years: 21.6 years with normal weight, 21.1 years with overweight, and 8.8 years with obesity. If the rates of weight gain observed in the first 5 years of this decade are maintained, our findings suggest that normal‐weight adults will constitute less than a third of the population by 2025, and the obesity prevalence will have increased by 65%.

[1]  M. Pencina,et al.  Increasing trends in incidence of overweight and obesity over 5 decades. , 2007, The American journal of medicine.

[2]  A. Astrup,et al.  Obesity : Preventing and managing the global epidemic , 2000 .

[3]  J. McNeil,et al.  Public health campaigns and obesity - a critique , 2011, BMC public health.

[4]  W. Cleveland,et al.  Regression by local fitting: Methods, properties, and computational algorithms , 1988 .

[5]  C. Ruhm Current and Future Prevalence of Obesity and Severe Obesity in the United States , 2007 .

[6]  Susan T. Stewart,et al.  Forecasting the effects of obesity and smoking on U.S. life expectancy. , 2009, The New England journal of medicine.

[7]  A. Luke,et al.  Increasing BMI and waist circumference and prevalence of obesity among adults with Type 2 diabetes: the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. , 2010, Journal of diabetes and its complications.

[8]  D. Magliano,et al.  Setting population targets for measuring successful obesity prevention. , 2010, American journal of public health.

[9]  J. Shaw,et al.  Lifetime risk and projected population prevalence of diabetes , 2008, Diabetologia.

[10]  G. Colditz,et al.  Forecasting the Obesity Epidemic in the Aging U.S. Population , 2007, Obesity.

[11]  K. Flegal,et al.  Prevalence and trends in obesity among US adults, 1999-2008. , 2010, JAMA.

[12]  E. Dietrich,et al.  Article OPEN ACCESS International Journal of , 2022 .

[13]  T. Gill,et al.  Obesity in South Australian adults – prevalence, projections and generational assessment over 13 years , 2005, Australian and New Zealand journal of public health.

[14]  K. Reynolds,et al.  Global burden of obesity in 2005 and projections to 2030 , 2008, International Journal of Obesity.

[15]  S. Gerritsen,et al.  A Portrait of Health: Key results of the 2006/07 New Zealand Health Survey , 2008 .

[16]  C. Reid,et al.  Trends in BMI of urban Australian adults, 1980–2000 , 2009, Public Health Nutrition.

[17]  Benjamin Caballero,et al.  Will All Americans Become Overweight or Obese? Estimating the Progression and Cost of the US Obesity Epidemic , 2008, Obesity.

[18]  J. Shaw,et al.  The Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study (AusDiab)--methods and response rates. , 2002, Diabetes research and clinical practice.

[19]  A. Tonkin,et al.  Accuracy of the Australian National Death Index: comparison with adjudicated fatal outcomes among Australian participants in the Long‐term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischaemic Disease (LIPID) study , 2003, Australian and New Zealand journal of public health.

[20]  J. Mindell,et al.  Trends in obesity among adults in England from 1993 to 2004 by age and social class and projections of prevalence to 2012 , 2008, Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health.

[21]  J. Shaw,et al.  Overweight and obesity in Australia: the 1999–2000 Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study (AusDiab) , 2003, The Medical journal of Australia.

[22]  B. Crammond,et al.  Why education and choice won't solve the obesity problem. , 2009, American journal of public health.

[23]  A. Okely,et al.  Trends in the Prevalence of Overweight and Obesity among Young Australians, 1985, 1997, and 2004 , 2007, Obesity.