Multidimensional Latent Markov Models in a Developmental Study of Inhibitory Control and Attentional Flexibility in Early Childhood

We demonstrate the use of a multidimensional extension of the latent Markov model to analyse data from studies with repeated binary responses in developmental psychology. In particular, we consider an experiment based on a battery of tests which was administered to pre-school children, at three time periods, in order to measure their inhibitory control (IC) and attentional flexibility (AF) abilities. Our model represents these abilities by two latent traits which are associated to each state of a latent Markov chain. The conditional distribution of the test outcomes given the latent process depends on these abilities through a multidimensional one-parameter or two-parameter logistic parameterisation. We outline an EM algorithm for likelihood inference on the model parameters; we also focus on likelihood ratio testing of hypotheses on the dimensionality of the model and on the transition matrices of the latent process. Through the approach based on the proposed model, we find evidence that supports that IC and AF can be conceptualised as distinct constructs. Furthermore, we outline developmental aspects of participants’ performance on these abilities based on inspection of the estimated transition matrices.

[1]  S. P. Pederson,et al.  Hidden Markov and Other Models for Discrete-Valued Time Series , 1998 .

[2]  Biing-Hwang Juang,et al.  Hidden Markov Models for Speech Recognition , 1991 .

[3]  Andrew J. Viterbi,et al.  Error bounds for convolutional codes and an asymptotically optimum decoding algorithm , 1967, IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory.

[4]  G. Schwarz Estimating the Dimension of a Model , 1978 .

[5]  Natasha Z. Kirkham,et al.  ARTICLE WITH PEER COMMENTARIES AND RESPONSE Helping children apply their knowledge to their behavior on a dimension-switching task , 2003 .

[6]  Arnold L. van den Wollenberg,et al.  Two new test statistics for the rasch model , 1982 .

[7]  Francesco Bartolucci,et al.  A class of multidimensional IRT models for testing unidimensionality and clustering items , 2007 .

[8]  J. Vermunt,et al.  Discrete-Time Discrete-State Latent Markov Models with Time-Constant and Time-Varying Covariates , 1999 .

[9]  Paul F. Lazarsfeld,et al.  Latent Structure Analysis. , 1969 .

[10]  B. Muthén,et al.  Finite Mixture Modeling with Mixture Outcomes Using the EM Algorithm , 1999, Biometrics.

[11]  K. Liang,et al.  Asymptotic Properties of Maximum Likelihood Estimators and Likelihood Ratio Tests under Nonstandard Conditions , 1987 .

[12]  Rolf Langeheine,et al.  Applied Latent Class Analysis: Latent Markov Chains , 2002 .

[13]  G. Rasch On General Laws and the Meaning of Measurement in Psychology , 1961 .

[14]  Otis Dudley Duncan,et al.  Panel Analysis: Latent Probability Models for Attitude and Behavior Processes. , 1975 .

[15]  F. Bartolucci Likelihood inference for a class of latent Markov models under linear hypotheses on the transition probabilities , 2006 .

[16]  André Berchtold,et al.  Optimization of Mixture Models: Comparison of Different Strategies , 2004, Comput. Stat..

[17]  Melvin R. Novick,et al.  Some latent train models and their use in inferring an examinee's ability , 1966 .

[18]  Daniel S. Nagin,et al.  Analyzing developmental trajectories: A semiparametric, group-based approach , 1999 .

[19]  K Shimmon,et al.  The development of executive control in young children and its relationship with mental-state understanding : a longitudinal study. , 2004 .

[20]  Tammo H. A. Bijmolt,et al.  Discrete time, discrete state latent Markov modelling for assessing and predicting household acquisitions of financial products , 2007 .

[21]  I. W. Molenaar,et al.  Rasch models: foundations, recent developments and applications , 1995 .

[22]  Cees A. W. Glas,et al.  Testing the Rasch Model , 1995 .

[23]  M. R. Novick,et al.  Statistical Theories of Mental Test Scores. , 1971 .

[24]  John N. Towse,et al.  Understanding the dimensional change card sort: Perspectives from task success and failure , 2000 .

[25]  Svend Kreiner,et al.  Testing unidimensionality in polytomous Rasch models , 2002 .

[26]  Arin M. Connell,et al.  Growth Mixture Modelling in Developmental Psychology: Overview and Demonstration of Heterogeneity in Developmental Trajectories of Adolescent Antisocial Behaviour , 2006 .

[27]  Bengt Muthén,et al.  Second-generation structural equation modeling with a combination of categorical and continuous latent variables: New opportunities for latent class–latent growth modeling. , 2001 .

[28]  L. Baum,et al.  A Maximization Technique Occurring in the Statistical Analysis of Probabilistic Functions of Markov Chains , 1970 .

[29]  P. Zelazo,et al.  An age-related dissociation between knowing rules and using them ☆ , 1996 .

[30]  P. Sen,et al.  Constrained Statistical Inference: Inequality, Order, and Shape Restrictions , 2001 .

[31]  Douglas Frye,et al.  Cognitive Complexity and Control , 1998 .

[32]  D S Nagin,et al.  Analyzing developmental trajectories of distinct but related behaviors: a group-based method. , 2001, Psychological methods.

[33]  A. Diamond,et al.  The relationship between cognition and action: performance of children 3 1 2 –7 years old on a stroop- like day-night test , 1994, Cognition.

[34]  Geoffrey J. McLachlan,et al.  Finite Mixture Models , 2019, Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application.

[35]  Norman Verhelst Testing the unidimensionality assumption of the Rasch model , 2001 .

[36]  Douglas Frye,et al.  Cognitive Complexity and Control , 1998 .

[37]  A. Shapiro Towards a unified theory of inequality constrained testing in multivariate analysis , 1988 .

[38]  Lain L. MacDonald,et al.  Hidden Markov and Other Models for Discrete- valued Time Series , 1997 .

[39]  Philip David Zelazo,et al.  Inhibition as a problem in the psychology of behavior , 2003 .

[40]  Jan de Leeuw,et al.  On the relationship between item response theory and factor analysis of discretized variables , 1987 .

[41]  Richard Reilly,et al.  Do antisaccade deficits in schizophrenia provide evidence of a specific inhibitory function? , 2006, Journal of the International Neuropsychological Society.

[42]  Akihito Kamata,et al.  Item Analysis by the Hierarchical Generalized Linear Model. , 2001 .

[43]  Arnold L. van den Wollenberg,et al.  A Simple and Effective Method to Test the Dimensionality Axiom of the Rasch Model , 1982 .

[44]  B. Muthén Latent variable structural equation modeling with categorical data , 1983 .

[45]  Neil Henry Latent structure analysis , 1969 .

[46]  Francesco Bartolucci,et al.  A latent Markov model for detecting patterns of criminal activity , 2007 .

[47]  D. Rubin,et al.  Maximum likelihood from incomplete data via the EM - algorithm plus discussions on the paper , 1977 .

[48]  Francesco Bartolucci,et al.  Likelihood inference for the latent Markov Rasch model , 2010 .