Analysis of projected vs. actual costs for nuclear and coal-fired power plants

At the request of ERDA/Fossil Energy, MITRE collected and analyzed available data on projected and actual power plant costs for nuclear and coal-fired systems. A total of twenty-seven references were found to contain relevant data. Included were the annual FPC reports on Steam-Electric Plant Construction Costs and Annual Production Expenses, several of the WASH reports (including WASH-1345) published by the AEC, and ERDA/AEC forms HQ-254 which report nuclear plant capital cost data. Data on projected and actual capital costs for specific coal-fired plants were obtained via direct contact with individual utilities. MITRE then tabulated the projected and actual cost data, identifying plant type, size, on-line date, and the data for which the cost estimates are appropriate. The objectives of this brief study were: (1) to compare projected and actual costs for both nuclear and coal-fired power plants for start of operation dates in the period 1967 through 1975; (2) to compare cost projection accuracy for nuclear and coal-fired power plants; and (3) to examine, in particular, projections vs actual costs for a common start-of-operation date, allowing for variable construction start dates due to the difference in construction time for the two types of power plants. (MCW)