Assessing the effects on flood risk of land-use changes in the last five decades: an Italian case study.

The present work aims to assess the effects that recent land use changes might have induced on the flood risk. The analysis has been carried out by applying hydrological simulation techniques to the Samoggia River basin in the Apennines Mountains (Italy). The man-induced extensive land use modifications, which have affected the drainage basin during the last 50 years, have been assessed by historical land use maps, relative to the years 1955, 1980 and 1992. The variations of the peak flow regime, due to increasing urbanization, have been investigated by simulating the Samoggia River flows for the different historical land use scenarios. The results indicate that the higher the return period of the flood is, the less significant the effects of the human activities are.