Incorporating Historical Controls in Testing for a Trend in Proportions

Abstract The testing of chemicals for carcinogenic activity in lifetime rodent bioassays has produced a large amount of data on a few strains of mice and rats. Because of the use of fixed protocols in repeated experiments, the opportunity presents itself for using this historical data in the analysis of a current experiment. What has been considered is the statistical incorporation of the historical control data into the current control group to increase the power of the test. This is especially relevant when dealing with tumors of a rare type where the toxicologist will place great significance on their occurrence in a treatment group. Experimentally it is assumed that three groups of about 50 animals each are tested at two treatment levels and a control. The response for each treatment group is assumed to be binomial. Further it is assumed that the probability of an animal with a tumor in the control group has a beta distribution that is determined from the historical control data. Several authors (Demp...