© Author(s) 2006. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License. Natural Hazards

Abstract. The Monte Rosa east face, Italian Alps, is one of the highest flanks in the Alps (2200–4500 m a.s.l.). Steep hanging glaciers and permafrost cover large parts of the wall. Since the end of the Little Ice Age (about 1850), the hanging glaciers and firn fields have retreated continuously. During recent decades, the ice cover of the Monte Rosa east face experienced an accelerated and drastic loss in extent. Some glaciers have completely disappeared. New slope instabilities and detachment zones of gravitational mass movements developed and enhanced rock fall and debris flow activity was observed. This study is based on multidisciplinary investigations and shows that most of the detachment zones of rock fall and debris flows are located in areas, where the surface ice disappeared only recently. Furthermore, most of these detachment zones are located in permafrost zones, for the most part close to the modelled and estimated lower boundary of the regional permafrost distribution. In the view of ongoing or even enhanced atmospheric warming and associated changes it is therefore very likely that the slope instabilities in the Monte Rosa east face will continue to represent a critical hazard source.

[1]  Richard S. Williams Book review: Remote sensing of mountain glaciers and permafrost creep , 2007, Journal of Glaciology.

[2]  C. Stubbs,et al.  Weathering by segregation ice growth in microcracks at sustained subzero temperatures: Verification from an experimental study using acoustic emissions , 1991 .

[3]  Bernd Etzelmüller,et al.  The assessment of potential geotechnical hazards associated with mountain permafrost in a warming global climate , 2001 .

[4]  Frank Paul,et al.  Glacier fluctuations in the European Alps, 1850–2000: an overview and spatio-temporal analysis of available data , 2008 .

[5]  Stephan Gruber,et al.  Rock‐wall temperatures in the Alps: modelling their topographic distribution and regional differences , 2004 .

[6]  C. Kneisel Permafrost in recently deglaciated glacier forefields - measurements and observations in the eastern Swiss Alps and northern Sweden (with 7 figures and 4 tables) , 2003 .

[7]  Ketil Isaksen,et al.  Warming permafrost in European mountains , 2003 .

[8]  Jürg Alean,et al.  Ice Avalanches: Some Empirical Information about their Formation and Reach , 1985, Journal of Glaciology.

[9]  R. Frauenfelder Regional-scale modelling of the occurrence and dynamics of rockglaciers and the distribution of paleopermafrost , 2004 .

[10]  Y. Weidmann,et al.  Remote sensing of glacier- and permafrost-related hazards in high mountains: an overview , 2005 .

[11]  Michael C. R. Davies,et al.  The effect of rise in mean annual temperature on the stability of rock slopes containing ice‐filled discontinuities , 2001 .

[12]  Andreas Kääb,et al.  Rapid disintegration of Alpine glaciers observed with satellite data , 2004 .

[13]  W. Haeberli,et al.  Permafrost changes in rock walls and the retreat of alpine glaciers: a thermal modelling approach , 1998 .

[14]  W. Haeberli,et al.  THE ROLE OF DIURNAL, ANNUAL AND MILLENNIAL FREEZE-THAW CYCLES IN CONTROLLING ALPINE SLOPE INSTABILITY , 1998 .

[15]  Stefan Margreth,et al.  Hazard mapping for ice and combined snow/ice avalanches — two case studies from the Swiss and Italian Alps , 1999 .

[16]  C. Ballantyne PERIGLACIAL LANDFORMS | Paraglacial Geomorphology , 2007 .

[17]  Andreas Kääb,et al.  A surge-type movement at Ghiacciaio del Belvedere and a developing slope instability in the east face of Monte Rosa, Macugnaga, Italian Alps , 2002 .

[18]  F. Keller,et al.  Automated mapping of mountain permafrost using the program PERMAKART within the geographical information system ARC/INFO , 1992 .

[19]  Martin Beniston,et al.  Climate change and its impacts on glaciers and permafrost in the Alps , 1998 .

[20]  J. Noetzli,et al.  Mountain permafrost and recent Alpine rock-fall events: a GIS-based approach to determine critical factors and runout zones , 2003 .

[21]  Sunil Sharma,et al.  SLOPE STABILITY AND STABILIZATION METHODS , 1996 .

[22]  Andreas Kääb,et al.  GLACIER HAZARDS AT BELVEDERE GLACIER AND THE MONTE ROSA EAST FACE , ITALIAN ALPS : PROCESSES AND MITIGATION , 2004 .