Probabilistic energy flow for multi-carrier energy systems

Abstract This paper investigates energy flow of Multi-Carrier Energy Systems using Point Estimate Method and Monte Carlo simulation considering uncertainties, which may happen in the Electrical, Natural Gas, and District Heating Networks all together. These uncertainties could occur from the probabilistic behavior of loads or unforeseen faults. An innovative probabilistic energy flow of Multi-Carrier Energy Systems based on Point Estimate Method has been presented in this paper. Results for two different case studies are investigated and compared against those achieved from the Monte Carlo simulation. The results prove that the presented point estimate schemes have precise results, smaller computational burden, and time, comparing than Monte Carlo simulation method.

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