Modeling Support of Effects-Based Operations in War Games

Abstract : The Effects Based Operations (EBO) concept is based on relating actions in a battle plan to overall effects. A prototype system called CAESAR II/EB has been developed to assist in analyzing Courses of Action (COAs) for Effects-Based Operations and evaluating them in terms of the probability of achieving the desired effects. The tool supports both static and dynamic evaluation of COAs by integrating influence nets with discrete event systems modeling techniques. Preliminary operational concepts for using this tool in command and control environments were tested during the Naval War College Global 2000 and the Global 2001 war games providing insights into the appropriateness of these techniques in support of EBO. In Global 2001 the authors worked with different cells and components to produce four models of the complete battle plan to support the planning phase and six quick reaction models to support the execution phase of the game. The interaction of the modeling team with the multiple command and control cells in the game and the potential as a COA decision support was tested and examined. This paper describes the experiences with building and using the models and discusses requirements for enhancements to the modeling techniques generated from this experience.