Rethinking species' ability to cope with rapid climate change

Ongoing climate change is assumed to be exceptional because of its unprecedented velocity. However, new geophysical research suggests that dramatic climatic changes during the Late Pleistocene occurred extremely rapid, over just a few years. These abrupt climatic changes may have been even faster than contemporary ones, but relatively few continent‐wide extinctions of species have been documented for these periods. This raises questions about the ability of extant species to adapt to ongoing climate change. We propose that the advances in geophysical research challenge current views about species' ability to cope with climate change, and that lessons must be learned for modelling future impacts of climate change on species.

[1]  H. D. Cooper,et al.  Scenarios for Global Biodiversity in the 21st Century , 2010, Science.

[2]  J. Shakun,et al.  A global perspective on Last Glacial maximum to Holocene climate change , 2010 .

[3]  Christian Körner,et al.  Infra‐red thermometry of alpine landscapes challenges climatic warming projections , 2009 .

[4]  K. Willis,et al.  Biodiversity and Climate Change , 2009, Science.

[5]  G. Haug,et al.  Rapid oceanic and atmospheric changes during the Younger Dryas cold period , 2009 .

[6]  Bruce D. Patterson,et al.  The Status of the World's Land and Marine Mammals: Diversity, Threat, and Knowledge , 2008, Science.

[7]  Marie-Louise Siggaard-Andersen,et al.  High-Resolution Greenland Ice Core Data Show Abrupt Climate Change Happens in Few Years , 2008, Science.

[8]  G. Haug,et al.  An abrupt wind shift in western Europe at the onset of the Younger Dryas cold period , 2008 .

[9]  Liana N. Joseph,et al.  See Blockindiscussions, Blockinstats, Blockinand Blockinauthor Blockinprofiles Blockinfor Blockinthis Blockinpublication Evolutionary Blockinresponses Blockinto Blockinclimate Blockinchange , 2022 .

[10]  Vincent R. Gray.  Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Summary for Policymakers , 2007 .

[11]  David R. B. Stockwell,et al.  Forecasting the Effects of Global Warming on Biodiversity , 2007 .

[12]  A. Barnosky,et al.  Late Quaternary Extinctions: State of the Debate , 2006 .

[13]  C. Parmesan.  Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change , 2006 .

[14]  Erik Postma,et al.  Selection on Heritable Phenotypic Plasticity in a Wild Bird Population , 2005, Science.

[15]  B. Young,et al.  Response to Comment on "Status and Trends of Amphibian Declines and Extinctions Worldwide" , 2005, Science.

[16]  J. Peñuelas,et al.  Running to stand still: adaptation and the response of plants to rapid climate change. , 2005, Ecology letters.

[17]  O. Phillips,et al.  Extinction risk from climate change , 2004, Nature.

[18]  J. Svenning,et al.  Deterministic Plio‐Pleistocene extinctions in the European cool‐temperate tree flora , 2003 .

[19]  J. Overpeck,et al.  Abrupt Climate Change , 2003, Science.

[20]  J. Travis.  Climate change and habitat destruction: a deadly anthropogenic cocktail , 2003, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences.

[21]  G. Yohe,et al.  A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems , 2003, Nature.

[22]  J. Palutikof,et al.  Climate change 2007 : impacts, adaptation and vulnerability , 2001 .

[23]  R. Shaw,et al.  Range shifts and adaptive responses to Quaternary climate change. , 2001, Science.

[24]  R. B. Jackson,et al.  Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100. , 2000, Science.

[25]  K. Willis,et al.  The Full-Glacial Forests of Central and Southeastern Europe , 2000, Quaternary Research.

[26]  P. Raven,et al.  Biodiversity: Extinction by numbers , 2000, Nature.

[27]  T. Brown,et al.  The population genetic consequences of habitat fragmentation for plants. , 1996, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[28]  L. Fahrig,et al.  Conservation of fragmented populations , 1994 .

[29]  R. Holt.  The microevolutionary consequences of climate change. , 1990, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[30]  A. Fischlin,et al.  Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services , 2007 .

[31]  Masson-Delmotte,et al.  The Physical Science Basis , 2007 .

[32]  A. Jump,et al.  Running to stand still , 2005 .