Whaling Models for Cetacean Conservation

The IWC’s RMP makes use of a CLA with a simple density-dependent model that only requires data on previous catch and current stock size from which to set catch quotas. Although the underlying model is simple in structure, the algorithm is designed to reduce harvests to compensate for uncertainty in a way that makes it unlikely that overexploitation will occur when following the CLA. Careful consideration for uncertainty ensures that the RMP will be a safer model for governing whale harvests than its predecessor, the New Management Procedure. The RMP’s Bayesian approach to interfacing data with the model affords a powerful way to design ecological models. Nevertheless, problems with implementation may remain due to excessive harvests under the CLA if there are unreported harvests, overestimates of stock size, and failure to identify spatially structured stocks.

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