Capturing Quantitative & Qualitative Knowledge for Cost Modelling within a CE environment

Predicting the cost of a new military Air System, 20 years before it is due for production, is a complex, knowledge intensive activity. The margin of error can be as much as minus 50 to over plus 100%. A concurrent engineering (CE) environment helps to reduce this potential error by providing cost estimators with meaningful information during the early project phases. Nonetheless, it is difficult for non-cost experts to understand how a final estimate is derived, since the knowledge and experience of cost estimators is not made explicit within their cost models. As a result, cost estimating is sometimes considered a ‘black art’, yet in reality it is not, or rather, it need not be. To address this issue, the following paper presents the use of a novel knowledge capture methodology called Knowledge = Expert – Novice. This methodology aids the capture of cost modelling process knowledge during the conceptual stages of new product design, and makes the tacit knowledge of cost estimators more explicit. Furthermore, through this exercise a new cost modelling process has been identified, which it is argued, will enhance the quality and validity of future estimates.