Optimal scheme in energy performance contracting under uncertainty: A real option perspective

Abstract Energy performance contracting (EPC) was developed and had ever been believed as an effective energy-saving method. Despite that a variety of schemes, Guaranteed Saving, Shared Saving, and First-Out schemes, are created to be applied in various conditions, it has not been widely adopted as expected, due to the complexity of its profit allocation, high uncertainty and investment-assessing deficiency. In order to promote the wide applications of EPC projects, Real option analysis (ROA) is applied in this paper with the attempt of seeking the optimal scheme, which could be feasible and profitable for both stakeholders. ROA is studied to be an effective tool capable of considering the uncertainty and the managerial flexibility, and of assessing the investment value. A ROA-enabled methodology is proposed and expected to (1) identify feasible options for both the energy service company and the owner, (2) evaluate the investment value using the binomial tree pricing model, (3) develop new metrics for the optimal EPC scheme, and finally (4) single out the optimal scheme that is feasible and attractive for both sides. A real EPC project is studied to test the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed approach. The Shared Saving scheme is identified as the optimal scheme for the EPC project, striking a more ideal profit difference between participants than the other two schemes. This demonstrates the capability and effectiveness of the proposed approach in optimizing the scheme into a new balance. The sensitivity of the sharing proportion on the optimal EPC scheme is discussed, and it is found that the sharing proportion of realized energy cost savings by the energy service company is positively correlated with the total investment value. The novelty of this research lies in (a) the incorporation of contractual flexibility by means of the real option into the EPC project for optimal design, and (b) new metrics for the selection of the optimal EPC scheme. The proposed model and suggestions based on the case study are supposed to help decision-makers optimize the scheme under different scenarios. A feasible and attractive EPC scheme can further prompt wide application of energy-saving projects, which in turn contributes to the improvement of energy-consuming efficiency and then to realize the environmental sustainability.

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