Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a dry containment test problem for the MAEROS aerosol model

The MAEROS aerosol model is being incorporated into the MELCOR code system for the calculation of risk from severe reactor accidents. To gain insight to assist in this incorporation, a computational test problem involving a five-component aerosol in the containment of a pressurized water reactor was analyzed with MAEROS. The following topics were investigated: (1) the CRAY-1 CPU time requirements to implement and solve the system of differential equations on which MAEROS is based, (2) the effects on computational time and representational accuracy due to the use of different overall section boundaries and numbers of sections and components, and (3) the behavior of the aerosol and the variables which influence this behavior. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling and regression analysis were used in the investigation. Ten sections and overall section boundaries from 0.1E-6 m to 50.E-6 m were found to be adequate for the problem under consideration. Further, solution time was generally found to be a thousand times or more faster than real time, which is felt to be adequate for MELCOR. Stepwise regression, standardized regression coefficients and partial correlation coefficients were used to investigate the sources of variation in computational time and suspended aerosolmore » concentration. 18 refs., 27 figs., 11 tabs.« less

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