Simulation Based on an Agent-Based Model to Demonstrate the Transmission of COVID-19 and Effectiveness of Different Public Health Strategies

COVID-19 has changed the world fundamentally since its outbreak in January 2020. Public health experts and administrations around the world suggested and implemented various intervention strategies to slow down the transmission of the virus. To illustrate to the general public how the virus is transmitted and how different intervention strategies can check the transmission, we built an agent-based model to simulate the transmission of the virus in the real world and demonstrate how to prevent its spread with public health strategies.

[1]  R Core Team,et al.  R: A language and environment for statistical computing. , 2014 .

[2]  S. Tabatabai.  Simulations and Virtual Learning Supporting Clinical Education During the COVID 19 Pandemic , 2020, Advances in medical education and practice.

[3]  M. Olfson,et al.  A stochastic agent-based model of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in France , 2020, Nature Medicine.

[4]  Calvin S. H. Hoi,et al.  Big Data Visualization and Visual Analytics of COVID-19 Data , 2020, 2020 24th International Conference Information Visualisation (IV).

[5]  Jessica T Davis,et al.  The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak , 2020, Science.

[6]  J. Rocklöv,et al.  COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: estimating the epidemic potential and effectiveness of public health countermeasures , 2020, Journal of travel medicine.

[7]  Mikhail Prokopenko,et al.  Investigating Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Synchrony of Influenza Epidemics in Australia: An Agent-Based Modelling Approach , 2018, Simul. Model. Pract. Theory.

[8]  Marwan Al-Raeei.  The basic reproduction number of the new coronavirus pandemic with mortality for India, the Syrian Arab Republic, the United States, Yemen, China, France, Nigeria and Russia with different rate of cases , 2020, Clinical Epidemiology and Global Health.

[9]  Aravind Srinivasan,et al.  Modelling disease outbreaks in realistic urban social networks , 2004, Nature.

[10]  B. Finkenstädt,et al.  Statistical Inference in a Stochastic Epidemic SEIR Model with Control Intervention: Ebola as a Case Study , 2006, Biometrics.

[11]  J. Ioannidis,et al.  Visualizing the invisible: The effect of asymptomatic transmission on the outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 , 2020, Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering.

[12]  Laura Matrajt,et al.  Evaluating the Effectiveness of Social Distancing Interventions to Delay or Flatten the Epidemic Curve of Coronavirus Disease , 2020, Emerging infectious diseases.

[13]  L. Squiers,et al.  Mental Models of Infectious Diseases and Public Understanding of COVID-19 Prevention , 2020, Health communication.

[14]  Erik Cuevas,et al.  An agent-based model to evaluate the COVID-19 transmission risks in facilities , 2020, Computers in Biology and Medicine.

[15]  Michael J. D. Sutton,et al.  Potential for radical change in Higher Education learning spaces after the pandemic , 2020, 1.

[16]  Michael Y. Li,et al.  Why is it difficult to accurately predict the COVID-19 epidemic? , 2020, Infectious Disease Modelling.

[17]  P. Howard,et al.  Balancing Product Reviews, Traffic Targets, and Industry Criticism: UK Technology Journalism in Practice , 2020, Journalism Practice.

[18]  Asmita B. Kalamkar,et al.  COVID-19 Outbreak , 2020 .

[19]  E. Gibney.  Whose coronavirus strategy worked best? Scientists hunt most effective policies , 2020, Nature.

[20]  David L Smith,et al.  An agent-based model of dengue virus transmission shows how uncertainty about breakthrough infections influences vaccination impact projections , 2019, PLoS Comput. Biol..

[21]  Md. Haider Ali Biswas,et al.  A SEIR model for control of infectious diseases with constraints , 2014 .

[22]  J. Smyth,et al.  Age Differences in Adults’ Daily Social Interactions: An Ecological Momentary Assessment Study , 2018, Psychology and aging.

[23]  Hadley Wickham,et al.  ggplot2 - Elegant Graphics for Data Analysis (2nd Edition) , 2017 .