Large-area land surface simulations in heterogeneous terrain driven by global data sets: Application to mountain permafrost

Abstract. Numerical simulations of land surface processes are important in order to perform landscape-scale assessments of earth systems. This task is problematic in complex terrain due to (i) high-resolution grids required to capture strong lateral variability, and (ii) lack of meteorological forcing data where they are required. In this study we test a topography and climate processor, which is designed for use with large-area land surface simulation, in complex and remote terrain. The scheme is driven entirely by globally available data sets. We simulate air temperature, ground surface temperature and snow depth and test the model with a large network of measurements in the Swiss Alps. We obtain root-mean-squared error (RMSE) values of 0.64 °C for air temperature, 0.67–1.34 °C for non-bedrock ground surface temperature, and 44.5 mm for snow depth, which is likely affected by poor input precipitation field. Due to this we trial a simple winter precipitation correction method based on melt dates of the snowpack. We present a test application of the scheme in the context of simulating mountain permafrost. The scheme produces a permafrost estimate of 2000 km2, which compares well to published estimates. We suggest that this scheme represents a useful step in application of numerical models over large areas in heterogeneous terrain.

[1]  Ben S Cooper,et al.  Confronting models with data. , 2007, The Journal of hospital infection.

[2]  E. Martin,et al.  A meteorological estimation of relevant parameters for snow models , 1993 .

[3]  K. Beven,et al.  Model Calibration and Uncertainty Estimation , 2006 .

[4]  S. Gruber,et al.  Sensitivities and uncertainties of modeled ground temperatures in mountain environments , 2013 .

[5]  M. Smith,et al.  Climate and the limits of permafrost: a zonal analysis , 2002 .

[6]  R. Rigon,et al.  GEOtop: A Distributed Hydrological Model with Coupled Water and Energy Budgets , 2006 .

[7]  A. Arneth,et al.  Future challenges of representing land-processes in studies on land-atmosphere interactions , 2012 .

[8]  R. Koster,et al.  Modeling the land surface boundary in climate models as a composite of independent vegetation stands , 1992 .

[9]  M. Tiedtke A Comprehensive Mass Flux Scheme for Cumulus Parameterization in Large-Scale Models , 1989 .

[10]  M. Smith Microclimatic Influences on Ground Temperatures and Permafrost Distribution, Mackenzie Delta, Northwest Territories , 1975 .

[11]  Stephan Gruber,et al.  Derivation and analysis of a high-resolution estimate of global permafrost zonation , 2011 .

[12]  A. Dai Precipitation Characteristics in Eighteen Coupled Climate Models , 2006 .

[13]  Matthew Sturm,et al.  Vapor transport, grain growth and depth-hoar development in the subarctic snow , 1997 .

[14]  C. Frei Interpolation of temperature in a mountainous region using nonlinear profiles and non‐Euclidean distances , 2014 .

[15]  Stephan Gruber,et al.  TopoSCALE: deriving surface fluxes from gridded climate data , 2013 .

[16]  C. Piani,et al.  Statistical bias correction for daily precipitation in regional climate models over Europe , 2010 .

[17]  Riccardo Rigon,et al.  GEOtop 2.0: simulating the combined energy and water balance at and below the land surface accounting for soil freezing, snow cover and terrain effects , 2013 .

[18]  Riccardo Rigon,et al.  A robust and energy-conserving model of freezing variably-saturated soil , 2011 .

[19]  Ralph Dubayah,et al.  Topographic Solar Radiation Models for GIS , 1995, Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci..

[20]  N. Roberts,et al.  Realism of Rainfall in a Very High-Resolution Regional Climate Model , 2012 .

[21]  Stephan Gruber,et al.  TopoSUB: a tool for efficient large area numerical modelling in complex topography at sub-grid scales , 2012 .

[22]  S. Morin,et al.  Numerical and experimental investigations of the effective thermal conductivity of snow , 2011 .

[23]  Stephan Gruber,et al.  TopoSCALE v.1.0: downscaling gridded climate data in complex terrain , 2014 .

[24]  Philippe Cosenza,et al.  Relationship between thermal conductivity and water content of soils using numerical modelling , 2003 .

[25]  J. Thepaut,et al.  The ERA‐Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system , 2011 .

[26]  M. Hoelzle,et al.  A two-sided approach to estimate heat transfer processes within the active layer of the Murtèl–Corvatsch rock glacier , 2014 .

[27]  B. Etzelmüller,et al.  Transient thermal modeling of permafrost conditions in Southern Norway , 2012 .

[28]  Alexander P. Trishchenko,et al.  Natural variability and sampling errors in solar radiation measurements for model validation over the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains region , 2005 .

[29]  Edward J. Rykiel,et al.  Testing ecological models: the meaning of validation , 1996 .

[30]  Stephan Gruber,et al.  Scale-dependent measurement and analysis of ground surface temperature variability in alpine terrain , 2011 .

[31]  Alexander Brenning,et al.  A statistical approach to modelling permafrost distribution in the European Alps or similar mountain ranges , 2012 .

[32]  Bernd Etzelmüller,et al.  Recent Advances in Mountain Permafrost Research , 2013 .

[33]  Keith Beven,et al.  Linking parameters across scales: Subgrid parameterizations and scale dependent hydrological models. , 1995 .

[34]  Christian Hauck,et al.  Meltwater infiltration into the frozen active layer at an alpine permafrost site , 2010 .

[35]  Christopher A. Hiemstra,et al.  Simulating complex snow distributions in windy environments using SnowTran-3D , 2007, Journal of Glaciology.

[36]  M. Ek,et al.  Hyperresolution global land surface modeling: Meeting a grand challenge for monitoring Earth's terrestrial water , 2011 .

[37]  M. C. Hill,et al.  Model Calibration and Issues Related to Validation, Sensitivity Analysis, Post-audit, Uncertainty Evaluation and Assessment of Prediction Data Needs , 2007 .

[38]  Martin Schneebeli,et al.  A general treatment of snow microstructure exemplified by an improved relation for the thermal conductivity , 2012 .

[39]  Giacomo Bertoldi,et al.  Impact of Watershed Geomorphic Characteristics on the Energy and Water Budgets , 2006 .

[40]  C. Schär,et al.  A PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY OF THE ALPS FROM HIGH-RESOLUTION RAIN-GAUGE OBSERVATIONS , 1998 .

[41]  Akira Iwasaki,et al.  Characteristics of ASTER GDEM version 2 , 2011, 2011 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium.

[42]  E. Martin,et al.  A computer-based system simulating snowpack structures as a tool for regional avalanche forecasting , 1999, Journal of Glaciology.

[43]  M. Phillips,et al.  PERMAFROST MAP OF SWITZERLAND , 2000 .

[44]  Alexander Brenning,et al.  Permafrost distribution in the European Alps: calculation and evaluation of an index map and summary statistics , 2012 .

[45]  Christian Hauck,et al.  Permafrost model sensitivity to seasonal climatic changes and extreme events in mountainous regions , 2013 .

[46]  F. Ling,et al.  Impact of the timing and duration of seasonal snow cover on the active layer and permafrost in the Alaskan Arctic , 2003 .

[47]  M. Phillips,et al.  Permafrost and climate in Europe: Monitoring and modelling thermal, geomorphological and geotechnical responses , 2009 .

[48]  J. Christensen,et al.  Improved confidence in climate change projections of precipitation evaluated using daily statistics from the PRUDENCE ensemble , 2009 .

[49]  B. Etzelmüller,et al.  CryoGRID 1.0: Permafrost Distribution in Norway estimated by a Spatial Numerical Model , 2013 .

[50]  J. Curry,et al.  Confronting Models with Data: The Gewex Cloud Systems Study , 2003 .

[51]  Alan K. Betts,et al.  Land‐Surface‐Atmosphere Coupling in Observations and Models , 2009 .

[52]  T. Barnett,et al.  Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions , 2005, Nature.

[53]  Knut Stamnes,et al.  Influence of the depth hoar layer of the seasonal snow cover on the ground thermal regime , 1996 .

[54]  Vladimir E. Romanovsky,et al.  Numerical modeling of permafrost dynamics in Alaska using a high spatial resolution dataset , 2009 .

[55]  S. Ghan,et al.  Parameterizing Subgrid Orographic Precipitation and Surface Cover in Climate Models , 1998 .

[56]  L. E. Goodrich,et al.  The influence of snow cover on the ground thermal regime , 1982 .

[57]  Karsten Schulz,et al.  High resolution modelling of snow transport in complex terrain using downscaled MM5 wind fields , 2010 .

[58]  Ch. Marty,et al.  Altitude dependence of surface radiation fluxes and cloud forcing in the alps: results from the alpine surface radiation budget network , 2002 .

[59]  M. Schaap,et al.  The impact of differences in large-scale circulation output from climate models on the regional modeling of ozone and PM , 2012 .

[60]  A. Pitman The evolution of, and revolution in, land surface schemes designed for climate models , 2003 .

[61]  S. Gruber,et al.  Inferring snowpack ripening and melt-out from distributed measurements of near-surface ground temperatures , 2012 .

[62]  Tingjun Zhang Influence of the seasonal snow cover on the ground thermal regime: An overview , 2005 .

[63]  R. Dickinson,et al.  The Common Land Model , 2003 .

[64]  Jerry L. Hatfield,et al.  Data quality checking for single station meteorological databases , 1994 .