Estimating Mosquito Population Size from Mark—Release—Recapture Data

ABSTRACT Accurate estimation of population size is key to understanding the ecology of disease vectors, as well as the epidemiology of the pathogens they carry and to plan effective control activities. Population size can be estimated through mark—release—recapture (MRR) experiments that are based on the assumption that the ratio of recaptured individuals to the total captures approximates the ratio of marked individuals released to the total population. However, methods to obtain population size estimates usually consider pooled data and are often based on the total number of marked and unmarked captures. We here present a logistic regression model, based on the principle of the well-known Fisher—Ford method, specific for MRR experiments where the information available is the number of marked mosquitoes released, the number of marked and unmarked mosquitoes caught in each trap and on each day, and the geographic coordinates of the traps. The model estimates population size, taking into consideration the distance between release points and traps, the time between release and recapture, and the loss of marked mosquitoes to death or dispersal. The performance and accuracy of the logistic regression model has been assessed using simulated data from known population sizes. We then applied the model to data from MRR experiments with Aedes albopictus Skuse performed on the campus of “Sapienza” University in Rome (Italy).

[1]  G. Conway,et al.  Population parameters of the mosquito Aedes aegypti (L.) estimated by mark-release-recapture in a suburban habitat in Tanzania. , 1974 .

[2]  M. Begon.  Investigating animal abundance : capture-recapture for biologists , 1979 .

[3]  Kenneth H. Pollock.  Capture-recapture models: A review of current methods, assumptions and experimental design , 1980 .

[4]  G. Seber.  The estimation of animal abundance and related parameters , 1974 .

[5]  G. Macdonald,et al.  The analysis of the sporozoite rate. , 1952, Tropical diseases bulletin.

[6]  B. Caputo,et al.  Study of Aedes albopictus dispersal in Rome, Italy, using sticky traps in mark–release–recapture experiments , 2010, Medical and veterinary entomology.

[7]  J. Macleod.  THE ESTIMATION OF NUMBERS OF MOBILE INSECTS FROM LOW‐INCIDENCE RECAPTURE DATA , 2009 .

[8]  R A Fisher,et al.  The spread of a gene in natural conditions in a colony of the moth Panaxia dominula L. , 1947, Heredity.

[9]  G. Seber.  A review of estimating animal abundance. , 1986, Biometrics.

[10]  G. Seber,et al.  Estimating Animal Abundance: Review III , 1999 .

[11]  C. Jackson,et al.  The analysis of a tsetse-fly population. , 1948, Annals of eugenics.

[12]  F. C. Lincoln.  Calculating waterfowl abundance on the basis of banding returns , 1930 .

[13]  C. Jackson,et al.  The Analysis of an Animal Population. , 1939 .

[14]  C. Jackson.  50. Some New Methods in the Study of Glossina morsitans. , 1936 .

[15]  R. Fisher,et al.  THE QUANTITATIVE STUDY OF POPULATIONS IN THE LEPIDOPTERA I. POLYOMMATUS ICARUS ROTT , 1940 .

[16]  R. Tibshirani,et al.  An Introduction to the Bootstrap , 1995 .

[17]  J. Nichols,et al.  Statistical inference for capture-recapture experiments , 1992 .

[18]  A. Torre,et al.  Development of a novel sticky trap for container‐breeding mosquitoes and evaluation of its sampling properties to monitor urban populations of Aedes albopictus , 2007, Medical and veterinary entomology.

[19]  David L. Borchers,et al.  Density Estimation by Spatially Explicit Capture–Recapture: Likelihood-Based Methods , 2009 .

[20]  Norman T. J. Bailey,et al.  Improvements in the Interpretation of Recapture Data , 1952 .

[21]  N. Bailey.  ON ESTIMATING THE SIZE OF MOBILE POPULATIONS FROM RECAPTURE DATA , 1951 .

[22]  S. Mahamdallie,et al.  Integrated Mapping of Establishment Risk for Emerging Vector-Borne Infections: A Case Study of Canine Leishmaniasis in Southwest France , 2011, PloS one.

[23]  David R. Anderson,et al.  Capture-Recapture and Removal Methods for Sampling Closed Populations , 1983 .

[24]  R Meiswinkel,et al.  Mapping the basic reproduction number (R₀) for vector-borne diseases: a case study on bluetongue virus. , 2009, Epidemics.

[25]  N. Gratz,et al.  Critical review of the vector status of Aedes albopictus , 2004, Medical and veterinary entomology.

[26]  R. Romi,et al.  Aedes albopictus in Rome: results and perspectives after 10 years of monitoring. , 2008, Parassitologia.

[27]  E. Cren.  A NOTE ON THE HISTORY OF MARK-RECAPTURE POPULATION ESTIMATES , 1965 .

[28]  W. Reisen,et al.  Anopheles culicifacies Giles: a release-recapture experiment with cohorts of known age with implications for malaria epidemiology and genetical control in Pakistan. , 1980, Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

[29]  D. G. Chapman.  Some properties of the hypergeometric distribution with applications to zoölogical somple censuses , 1951 .

[30]  K. Burnham,et al.  Program MARK: survival estimation from populations of marked animals , 1999 .

[31]  S. Juliano,et al.  Temperature Effects on the Dynamics of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) Populations in the Laboratory , 2001, Journal of medical entomology.