The Impact of Neighborhood Context on Spatiotemporal Patterns of Burglary

Objectives: Examine how neighborhoods vary in the degree to which they experience repeat/near repeat crime patterns and whether theoretical constructs representing neighborhood-level context, including social ecology and structural attributes, can explain variation in single incidents and those linked in space and time. Methods: Examine social, structural, and environmental design covariates from the American Community Survey to assess the context of near repeat burglary at the block group level. Spatially lagged negative binomial regression models were estimated to assess the relative contribution of these covariates on single and repeat/near repeat burglary counts. Results: Positive and consistent association between concentrated disadvantage and racial heterogeneity and all types of burglaries was evident, although the effects for other indicators, including residential instability, family disruption, and population density, varied across classifications of single and repeat/near repeat burglaries. Conclusions: Repeat/near repeat burglary patterns are conditional on the overall level and specific dimensions of disorganization, holding implications for offender-focused as well as community-focused explanations. This study contributes greater integration between the study of empirically observed patterns of repeats and community-based theories of crime, including collective efficacy.