METHODOLOGY OF PROJECT ANALYSIS UNDER RISK WITH REFERENCE TO CAPITAL VENTURES IN ENERGY

ABSTRACT This paper surveys and discusses mathematical techniques for the analysis of capital ventures in general, with special reference to investments in the field of energy. The analysis is developed in terms of decision-making under risk. The paper presents a number of techniques for evaluating projects from the standpoint of economic viability and financial attractiveness. The methods of risk analysis presented include: direct adjustment for risk, break-even analysis, sensitivity analysis, random cash-flow analysis, decision trees and Monte Carlo simulation, and programming methods. Illustrative examples are presented and discussed. The techniques presented are intended for investors seeking to assess investment opportunities where simple, deterministic analysis may not be adequate. The basic statistical concepts needed to make the analysis of projects under risk are also developed.