Energy efficiency promotion in Greece in light of risk: Evaluating policies as portfolio assets

Abstract The European Union has set specific targets for reducing energy consumption, shifting the main focus of European energy policy towards a firm commitment to enhancing energy efficiency. In light of the limited progress reported in Greece's energy efficiency action plan, the objective of this paper is to help redesign the near-term national policy framework. In this respect, a risk-oriented optimisation model is developed to support the optimal budget allocation to energy efficiency measures, with a view to achieving the 2020 national targets. The transdisciplinary methodological framework initially builds on the Energy Efficiency Action Plans for Greece and involves stakeholder engagement, multiple-criteria decision making and portfolio analysis. The evaluation of the policy instruments is based on two criteria, namely energy savings and implementation risk, under a set of technical and financial constraints. Finally, the robustness of both the optimal policy portfolios and the individual policies composing these portfolios is assessed. The results indicate that, given the financial and technical constraints, the 2020 target cannot be achieved. By stochastically analysing the impact of external uncertainty, three policies emerge as the most robust, while portfolios achieving savings of more than 1000 kTOE until 2020 are found highly vulnerable to underlying uncertainties.