The Nature Index: A General Framework for Synthesizing Knowledge on the State of Biodiversity

The magnitude and urgency of the biodiversity crisis is widely recognized within scientific and political organizations. However, a lack of integrated measures for biodiversity has greatly constrained the national and international response to the biodiversity crisis. Thus, integrated biodiversity indexes will greatly facilitate information transfer from science toward other areas of human society. The Nature Index framework samples scientific information on biodiversity from a variety of sources, synthesizes this information, and then transmits it in a simplified form to environmental managers, policymakers, and the public. The Nature Index optimizes information use by incorporating expert judgment, monitoring-based estimates, and model-based estimates. The index relies on a network of scientific experts, each of whom is responsible for one or more biodiversity indicators. The resulting set of indicators is supposed to represent the best available knowledge on the state of biodiversity and ecosystems in any given area. The value of each indicator is scaled relative to a reference state, i.e., a predicted value assessed by each expert for a hypothetical undisturbed or sustainably managed ecosystem. Scaled indicator values can be aggregated or disaggregated over different axes representing spatiotemporal dimensions or thematic groups. A range of scaling models can be applied to allow for different ways of interpreting the reference states, e.g., optimal situations or minimum sustainable levels. Statistical testing for differences in space or time can be implemented using Monte-Carlo simulations. This study presents the Nature Index framework and details its implementation in Norway. The results suggest that the framework is a functional, efficient, and pragmatic approach for gathering and synthesizing scientific knowledge on the state of biodiversity in any marine or terrestrial ecosystem and has general applicability worldwide.

[1]  David B. Lindenmayer,et al.  The science and application of ecological monitoring , 2010 .

[2]  Chris J. Johnson,et al.  Mapping uncertainty: sensitivity of wildlife habitat ratings to expert opinion , 2004 .

[3]  R. Whittaker.  Evolution and measurement of species diversity , 1972 .

[4]  H. Possingham,et al.  Pelagic protected areas: the missing dimension in ocean conservation. , 2009, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[5]  E. Bayne,et al.  A new method to estimate species and biodiversity intactness using empirically derived reference conditions , 2007 .

[6]  Ben Collen,et al.  Biodiversity Conservation and the Millennium Development Goals , 2009, Science.

[7]  David H. Quist.  Direktoratet for Naturforvaltning , 2011 .

[8]  A typology of indicators of biodiversity change as a tool to make better indicators , 2009 .

[9]  C. Rahbek,et al.  Indicator taxa revisited: useful for conservation planning? , 2009 .

[10]  F. Chapin,et al.  A safe operating space for humanity , 2009, Nature.

[11]  Robert S. Steneck,et al.  Kelp forest ecosystems: biodiversity, stability, resilience and future , 2002, Environmental Conservation.

[12]  Sang Joon Kim,et al.  A Mathematical Theory of Communication , 2006 .

[13]  Urmas Kõljalg,et al.  Monitoring of Biological Diversity: a Common‐Ground Approach , 2007, Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology.

[14]  James H. Brown,et al.  The Report of the Ecological Society of America Committee on the Scientific Basis for Ecosystem Management , 1996 .

[15]  Sahotra Sarkar,et al.  Group Decisions in Biodiversity Conservation: Implications from Game Theory , 2010, PloS one.

[16]  K. Hindar,et al.  Effects of acidification on normal and dwarf arctic charr Salvelinus alpinus (L.) in a norwegian lake , 1995 .

[17]  Rob Alkemade,et al.  GLOBIO3: A Framework to Investigate Options for Reducing Global Terrestrial Biodiversity Loss , 2009, Ecosystems.

[18]  Jameal F. Samhouri,et al.  Identifying Thresholds for Ecosystem-Based Management , 2010, PloS one.

[19]  Ben Collen,et al.  Tracking Progress Toward the 2010 Biodiversity Target and Beyond , 2009, Science.

[20]  Pete Smith,et al.  A coherent set of future land use change scenarios for Europe , 2006 .

[21]  Tobias Roth,et al.  Top predators as indicators for species richness? Prey species are just as useful , 2007 .

[22]  Hugh P Possingham,et al.  Delaying conservation actions for improved knowledge: how long should we wait? , 2009, Ecology letters.

[23]  Michel Loreau,et al.  Diversity without representation , 2006, Nature.

[24]  K. M. Norderhaug,et al.  Sea urchin grazing and kelp re-vegetation in the NE Atlantic , 2009 .

[25]  C. Samper.  Planetary boundaries: Rethinking biodiversity , 2009 .

[26]  William J. Zielinski,et al.  EVALUATION OF A MULTIPLE‐SPECIES APPROACH TO MONITORING SPECIES AT THE ECOREGIONAL SCALE , 2004 .

[27]  Pedro Martins da Silva,et al.  Indicators of biodiversity and ecosystem services: a synthesis across ecosystems and spatial scales , 2009 .

[28]  Ken Caldeira,et al.  Geophysical limits to global wind power , 2012 .

[29]  Tim Sutton,et al.  How Global Is the Global Biodiversity Information Facility? , 2007, PloS one.

[30]  David B Lindenmayer,et al.  Adaptive monitoring: a new paradigm for long-term research and monitoring. , 2009, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[31]  M. Jenkins.  Prospects for Biodiversity , 2003, Science.

[32]  Martin K. Obrist,et al.  Biodiversity indicators: the choice of values and measures , 2003 .

[33]  R. Biggs,et al.  A biodiversity intactness index , 2005, Nature.

[34]  G. Arts.  Deterioration of atlantic soft water macrophyte communities by acidification, eutrophication and alkalinisation , 2002 .

[35]  J. Lamarque,et al.  Global Biodiversity: Indicators of Recent Declines , 2010, Science.

[36]  R. Bergström,et al.  Impact of simulated moose densities on abundance and richness of vegetation, herbivorous and predatory arthropods along a productivity gradient , 2008 .

[37]  Jean-Marc Fromentin,et al.  Ecosystem oceanography for global change in fisheries. , 2008, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[38]  Andrew Balmford,et al.  Getting the biodiversity intactness index right: the importance of habitat degradation data , 2006 .

[39]  E. Wilson,et al.  The Barometer of Life , 2010, Science.

[40]  Laurence T. Kell,et al.  An evaluation of management procedures for implementing a precautionary approach in the ICES context for North Sea plaice (Pleuronectes platessa L.) , 1999 .

[41]  Erlend B. Nilsen,et al.  The Role of Ecological and Economic Factors in the Management of a Spatially Structured Moose Alces alces Population , 2009 .

[42]  Risto Päivinen,et al.  Assessment of Biodiversity for Improved Forest Planning , 1998, Forestry Sciences.

[43]  P. Caplat,et al.  Managing agricultural change for biodiversity conservation in a Mediterranean upland , 2010 .

[44]  H. Washington,et al.  Diversity, biotic and similarity indices: A review with special relevance to aquatic ecosystems , 1984 .

[45]  Jean Clobert,et al.  Integrating ongoing biodiversity monitoring: potential benefits and methods , 2008, Biodiversity and Conservation.

[46]  S. Ferrier,et al.  Getting biodiversity intactness indices right: ensuring that ‘biodiversity’ reflects ‘diversity’ , 2007 .

[47]  D. Schindler,et al.  Comprehensive conservation planning to protect biodiversity and ecosystem services in Canadian boreal regions under a warming climate and increasing exploitation , 2010 .

[48]  J. Hutchings,et al.  Stock, Recruitment and Exploitation , 2010 .

[49]  H. Mooney,et al.  Toward a Global Biodiversity Observing System , 2008, Science.

[50]  Carrie V. Kappel,et al.  Using expert judgment to estimate marine ecosystem vulnerability in the California Current. , 2009, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[51]  R. Noss.  Indicators for Monitoring Biodiversity: A Hierarchical Approach , 1990 .

[52]  F. Chapin,et al.  EFFECTS OF BIODIVERSITY ON ECOSYSTEM FUNCTIONING: A CONSENSUS OF CURRENT KNOWLEDGE , 2005 .

[53]  A. McMichael,et al.  Assessing ecosystem health. , 1998, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[54]  A. Mysterud,et al.  The ecology and evolution of tooth wear in red deer and moose , 2007 .

[55]  A. O'Hagan,et al.  Statistical Methods for Eliciting Probability Distributions , 2005 .

[56]  M. Kaennel.  Biodiversity: A Diversity in Definition , 1998 .

[57]  James D. Nichols,et al.  Monitoring of biological diversity in space and time , 2001 .