The economic value of ensemble forecasts as a tool for risk assessment: From days to decades

Despite the revolutionary development of numerical weather and climate prediction (NWCP) in the second half of the last century, quantitative interaction between model developers and forecast customers has been rather limited. This is apparent in the diverse ways in which weather forecasts are assessed by these two groups: root‐mean‐square error of 500 hPa height on the one hand; pounds, euros or dollars saved on the other.

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