A particle swarm‐optimized support vector machine for reliability prediction

System reliability depends on inherent mechanical and structural aging factors as well as on operational and environmental conditions, which could enhance (or smoothen) such factors. In practice, the involved dependences may burden the modeling of the reliability behavior over time, in which traditional stochastic modeling approaches may likely fail. Empirical prediction methods, such as support vector machines (SVMs), become a valid alternative whenever reliable time series data are available. However, the prediction performance of SVMs depends on the setting of a number of parameters that influence the effectiveness of the training stage during which the SVMs are constructed based on the available data set. The problem of choosing the most suitable values for the SVM parameters can be framed in terms of an optimization problem aimed at minimizing a prediction error. In this work, this problem is solved by particle swarm optimization (PSO), a probabilistic approach based on an analogy with the collective motion of biological organisms. SVM in liaison with PSO is then applied to tackle reliability prediction problems based on time series data of engineered components. Comparisons of the obtained results with those given by other time series techniques indicate that the PSO + SVM model is able to provide reliability predictions with comparable or great accuracy. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.