New prognostic system specific for epidermal growth factor receptor-mutated lung cancer brain metastasis

Introduction Brain metastases (BM) from lung cancer are heterogeneous, and accurate prognosis is required for effective treatment strategies. This study aimed to identify prognostic factors and develop a prognostic system exclusively for epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)-mutated lung cancer BM. Methods In total, 173 patients with EGFR-mutated lung cancer from two hospitals who developed BM and received tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) and brain radiation therapy (RT) were included. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify significant EGFR-mutated BM prognostic factors to construct a new EGFR recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) prognostic index. The predictive discrimination of five prognostic scoring systems including RPA, diagnosis-specific prognostic factors indexes (DS-GPA), basic score for brain metastases (BS-BM), lung cancer using molecular markers (lung-mol GPA) and EGFR-RPA were analyzed using log-rank test, concordance index (C-index), and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). The potential predictive factors in the multivariable analysis to construct a prognostic index included Karnofsky performance status, BM at initial lung cancer diagnosis, BM progression after TKI, EGFR mutation type, uncontrolled primary tumors, and number of BM. Results and discussion In the log-rank test, indices of RPA, DS-GPA, lung-mol GPA, BS-BM, and EGFR-RPA were all significant predictors of overall survival (OS) (p ≤ 0.05). The C-indices of each prognostic score were 0.603, 0.569, 0.613, 0.595, and 0.671, respectively; The area under the curve (AUC) values predicting 1-year OS were 0.565 (p=0.215), 0.572 (p=0.174), 0.641 (p=0.007), 0.585 (p=0.106), and 0.781 (p=0.000), respectively. Furthermore, EGFR-RPA performed better in terms of calibration than other prognostic indices.BM progression after TKI and EGFR mutation type were specific prognostic factors for EGFR-mutated lung cancer BM. EGFR-RPA was more precise than other models, and useful for personal treatment.