Energy Saving and Cost Projections for Advanced Hybrid, Battery Electric, and Fuel Cell Vehicles in 2015-2030

Author(s): Burke, Andrew; Zhao, Hengbing | Abstract: In this paper, the fuel savings, relative initial costs, and breakeven gasoline prices for mid-sized passenger cars utilizing advanced powertrains in 2015-2045 are compared to those using conventional and advanced engine/transmission power trains that would be available in the same time periods. The advanced powertrains considered are hybrid-electric (HEV and PHEV) and all-electric (EV) powered by batteries alone or by a hydrogen fuel cell. Large fuel savings compared to 2007 conventional passenger cars are projected by 2030 for all the advanced powertrains ranging from 45% with advanced engines in conventional vehicles to 60% in hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs). The energy savings (combined gasoline and wall-plug electricity) for the PHEVs were 62% for the PHEV-20 and 75% for the PHEV-40. The energy saving for the FCHEV was 72% and for the BEV was 79%. The cost analyzes of the various advanced powertrains compared to the 2007 baseline vehicle indicated the most cost-effective was the HEV with a breakeven gasoline price of $2.50-3.00/gal gasoline for a five year payback period, 4% discount rate, and 12,000 miles/year. This was even lower than that for the conventional vehicles using the same advanced, high efficiency engine. The economics of battery-powered, 100 mile range vehicles were analyzed for battery costs between $300- 700/kWh. The breakeven gasoline prices for the BEVs are higher than for the other advanced vehicles being $4-5/gal even for the $300/kWh batteries. The economic results for the FCHEVs indicate that target fuel cell costs of $30–50/kW, 10-year life, and hydrogen prices in the $2.50–$ 3.00/kgH2 range make fuel cell vehicles cost competitive with HEVs and ICE vehicles using advanced engines.