Interdecadal Changes in Summertime Typhoon Tracks

Abstract The present work examines interdecadal variations of typhoon tracks in the western North Pacific (WNP) during the boreal summer (June–September) for the period 1951–2001. Typhoon tracks are expressed as percentage values of the total number of typhoon passages into a 5° × 5° latitude–longitude grid box with respect to the total number of typhoons formed in the WNP. The analysis period is divided into two interdecadal periods: ID1 (1951–79) and ID2 (1980–2001). From ID1 to ID2, typhoon passage frequency decreased significantly in the East China Sea and Philippine Sea, but increased slightly in the South China Sea. The time series of typhoon passage frequency over the East China Sea and South China Sea further reveal a regime shift in the late 1970s, while those over the Philippine Sea indicate a continuous downward trend of −9% decade−1. The interdecadal changes in typhoon tracks are associated with the westward expansion of the subtropical northwestern Pacific high (SNPH) in the late 1970s. The e...

[1]  W. M. Gray,et al.  GLOBAL VIEW OF THE ORIGIN OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCES AND STORMS , 1968 .

[2]  J. Chan.  Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Northwest Pacific in Relation to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation Phenomenon , 1985 .

[3]  J. Molinari,et al.  External Influences on Hurricane Intensity. Part I: Outflow Layer Eddy Angular Momentum Fluxes. , 1989 .

[4]  Ngar-Cheung Lau,et al.  A GCM Simulation of the Relationship between Tropical-Storm Formation and ENSO , 1992 .

[5]  The role of environmental asymmetries in Atlantic hurricane formation , 1992 .

[6]  Michael Ponater,et al.  On the Roles of Tropical and Midlatitude SSTs in Forcing Interannual to Interdecadal Variability in the Winter Northern Hemisphere Circulation , 1994 .

[7]  James W. Hurrell,et al.  Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific , 1994 .

[8]  Thomas M. Smith,et al.  Improved Global Sea Surface Temperature Analyses Using Optimum Interpolation , 1994 .

[9]  M. Lander.  An Exploratory Analysis of the Relationship between Tropical Storm Formation in the Western North Pacific and ENSO , 1994 .

[10]  J. Chan.  Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Western North Pacific in Relation to the Stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation , 1995 .

[11]  Bin Wang,et al.  Interdecadal changes in El Niño onset in the last four decades , 1995 .

[12]  J. McBride,et al.  Tropical cyclone formation. , 1995 .

[13]  J. Chan,et al.  Long-term trends and interannual variability in tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific , 1996 .

[14]  R. Reynolds,et al.  The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project , 1996, Renewable Energy.

[15]  Shu-Ping Weng,et al.  Interannual Variation in the Tropical Cyclone Formation over the Western North Pacific , 1996 .

[16]  J. Chan.  Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific Associated with El Niño and La Niña Events , 2000 .

[17]  Tim Li,et al.  Interannual and Interdecadal Variations of the East Asian Summer Monsoon and Tropical Pacific SSTs. Part I: Roles of the Subtropical Ridge , 2000 .

[18]  X. Niu,et al.  Changes in the rates of North Atlantic major hurricane activity during the 20th century , 2000 .

[19]  W. Collins,et al.  The NCEP–NCAR 50-Year Reanalysis: Monthly Means CD-ROM and Documentation , 2001 .

[20]  John A. Knaff,et al.  A Tropical Cyclone Genesis Parameter for the Tropical Atlantic , 2001 .

[21]  Relationship between vertical wind shear and typhoon intensity change, and development of three-predictor intensity prediction model , 2001 .

[22]  Tomonori Matsuura,et al.  Interdecadal Variability of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Western North Pacific , 2001 .

[23]  W. M. Gray,et al.  The Recent Increase in Atlantic Hurricane Activity: Causes and Implications , 2001, Science.

[24]  C. F. Ropelewski,et al.  The Interannual Variability in the Genesis Location of Tropical Cyclones in the Northwest Pacific , 2002 .

[25]  P. Chu,et al.  Large-Scale Circulation Features Associated with Decadal Variations of Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Central North Pacific , 2002 .

[26]  Bin Wang,et al.  How Strong ENSO Events Affect Tropical Storm Activity over the Western North Pacific(. , 2002 .

[27]  James D. Clark,et al.  Interannual Variation of Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Central North Pacific. , 2002 .

[28]  Chang‐Hoi Ho,et al.  Shift in the summer rainfall over the Yangtze River valley in the late 1970s , 2002 .

[29]  Chang‐Hoi Ho,et al.  A sudden change in summer rainfall characteristics in Korea during the late 1970s , 2003 .