Analysing future trends of renewable electricity in the EU in a low-carbon context

The aim of this paper is to analyse the situation and trends of electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E) in the EU up to 2030, taking into account several drivers and barriers and different maturity levels for the renewable energy technologies. The methodology is based on the results of simulation models providing insights on future outlooks, complemented with an analysis of regulations and other drivers and barriers. Regarding the most mature renewable electricity technologies, the main drivers will be public policies (carbon prices and support schemes) and the expected up-ward trend in fossil-fuel prices and the main barriers are related to grid access, administrative procedures and the exhaustion of places with the best wind resource. For those already commercial but expensive technologies, the main driver is support schemes (but not carbon prices) allowing the exploitation of the large potential for investment cost reductions. Barriers are mostly related to their high investment costs. Finally, for those technologies which are emerging and immature, further technical improvements as a result of R&D efforts will be needed and they cannot be expected to significantly penetrate the European electricity market until 2030.

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