On the meaning of the likelihood ratio: Is a large number always an indication of strength of evidence?

Abstract There is general lack of awareness that high LR based on complex propositions e.g. three contributors, does not necessarily translate into probative evidence against a suspect. In some cases there is an increased chance of false inclusion of a person of interest. This is an issue for all LR-based models. One way to address this issue is to further evaluate or qualify the estimated LR by a performance test. Based on simulations, this was achieved by non-contributor-testing: replacing the reference profile of interest (typically the suspect's profile), by the profile of a simulated random man. An exact p -value can also be calculated, giving the chance of observing an LR-value exceeding the estimated if the defense hypothesis is true.